Keldon Johnson's assists props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over rate across his last 10 games with a brutal -0.4 differential versus the typical 3.8 line. Currently riding a four-game under streak, this trend screams systematic underperformance in his playmaking role.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's assists struggles stem from San Antonio's offensive structure where he functions primarily as a scorer rather than facilitator. The 3.4 average against a 3.8 line represents a significant 10.5% shortfall that suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced playmaking responsibilities this season. The four-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects Johnson's natural role as a wing scorer who creates his own shot rather than setting up teammates. His assist rate has declined as the Spurs have shifted toward more ball movement through their guards, leaving Johnson to focus on his scoring efficiency. The 33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't a small sample fluke but a structural shift in his usage. While regression toward the mean is always possible, Johnson's skill set and San Antonio's offensive philosophy suggest this under trend has staying power. The consistency of the underperformance—hitting under in 7 of 10 games—indicates books are slow to adjust their lines to reflect his diminished playmaking role. This creates ongoing value for sharp bettors willing to fade the inflated assist totals.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's 30% over rate and -0.4 differential create clear value on the under, especially with books seemingly slow to adjust. The four-game under streak reflects his scoring-focused role rather than temporary slump. Main risk is potential blowout games where garbage time assists inflate his numbers, but his consistent underperformance suggests systematic value exists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Johnson has gone 3-7 over/under on assists props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% overs. He's averaging 3.4 assists against typical lines around 3.8, creating a -0.4 differential that strongly favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Johnson's assists props. His 30% over rate and four-game under streak reflect his scoring-focused role rather than playmaking duties. The -0.4 differential shows consistent value on the under side.
What's Keldon Johnson's average Assists last 10 games?
Johnson is averaging 3.4 assists over his last 10 games, which sits 0.4 below the typical 3.8 line. This 10.5% shortfall represents significant underperformance that creates ongoing value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's assists unders when he's in his natural scoring role against competitive opponents. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate assists, but his consistent underperformance suggests regular value exists.