Kawhi Leonard has hit the three-point over in just 40% of his last 10 games, averaging 1.6 makes against a typical 1.7 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have been costly at -23.6%. This points to a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Leonard's three-point struggles over this 10-game stretch reflect his methodical return from injury management and evolving role within the Clippers' offense. The 1.6 average against a 1.7 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced shooting volume, creating consistent under value. His 40% over rate isn't just bad luck – it represents a fundamental shift in shot selection as Leonard prioritizes efficiency over volume in his load management phase. The -0.1 differential might seem minor, but it's significant for a player of Leonard's caliber who typically exceeds expectations. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates market inefficiency, as casual bettors continue backing Leonard's reputation rather than his current reality. His recent two-game over streak shouldn't fool sharp bettors – it follows a three-game under streak that better represents his current approach. Leonard is taking fewer contested threes and focusing on higher-percentage looks closer to the basket. The Clippers' depth allows him this luxury, but it makes three-point overs increasingly difficult to hit. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors who recognize Leonard's tactical shift toward playoff preparation over regular season statistics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Leonard's 1.6 average against typical 1.7 lines creates consistent value, supported by a 14.6% under ROI. The market hasn't adjusted to his reduced three-point volume during load management. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, especially in back-to-back situations where Leonard prioritizes efficiency over volume shooting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Kawhi Leonard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kawhi Leonard's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Kawhi Leonard has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), with 6 unders. He's averaging 1.6 makes per game against typical lines around 1.7, creating a -0.1 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kawhi Leonard 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Leonard's three-pointers made props. His 40% over rate and 1.6 average against 1.7 lines show clear value on unders, which have generated a 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% losses on overs during this stretch.
What's Kawhi Leonard's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Leonard is averaging 1.6 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which sits 0.1 below the typical 1.7 line. This small but consistent gap has created profitable opportunities for under bettors throughout this recent sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Leonard three-point unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, particularly in back-to-back games or rest situations. His load management approach and focus on efficiency over volume creates the best under value in these spots.