Kawhi Leonard's three-pointers made prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 34.6% of overs across 26 games with a -0.3 average differential from the line. The under trend shows strong +24.8% ROI while overs have been disastrous at -33.9%, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Leonard's home three-point struggles stem from his methodical offensive approach in familiar surroundings. At Crypto.com Arena, he consistently operates below his projected output of 2.12 makes per game, averaging just 1.77 - a meaningful 0.35-shot gap that compounds over time. The 9-17 over-under record isn't random variance; it reflects Leonard's tendency to prioritize efficient mid-range looks and drives when comfortable at home rather than hunting threes. His load management philosophy also factors in, as Leonard often scales back volume in favorable home matchups where the Clippers control pace. The concerning -33.9% ROI on overs indicates books haven't fully adjusted to this pattern, creating sustained value on unders. The current two-game under streak aligns with his historical three-game maximum, suggesting this isn't due for immediate regression. Leonard's three-point rate drops notably at home compared to road games where he's forced into higher-volume shooting to match opponent intensity. This trend shows remarkable consistency across different opponents and game scripts, indicating a fundamental shift in his home court approach rather than matchup-dependent variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Leonard's home three-point output consistently falls short of inflated lines, creating a sustainable edge with +24.8% ROI backing the trend. The ideal spot comes against weaker opponents where the Clippers control tempo and Leonard can pick his spots methodically. Main risk involves playoff-chase scenarios where he might expand his range, but the 26-game sample provides solid foundation for continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Kawhi Leonard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kawhi Leonard's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Leonard's three-pointers made prop at home shows a 9-17 over-under record (34.6% overs) across 26 games from October 2023 to March 2024, demonstrating consistent under performance with strong sample size validation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kawhi Leonard 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Leonard's three-pointers made at home. The trend shows +24.8% ROI on unders versus -33.9% on overs, with his 1.77 average consistently falling short of typical 2.12 lines.
What's Kawhi Leonard's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Leonard averages 1.77 three-pointers made in home games, running 0.35 shots below the typical 2.12 line. This -0.3 differential creates consistent value for under bettors across the 26-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Leonard three-point unders at home against weaker opponents where the Clippers control pace. Avoid when chasing playoffs or in high-scoring projected games where he might expand his shooting volume significantly.