Kawhi Leonard's three-pointers made prop shows a strong under bias with just 37.7% overs across 61 games, hitting under at a profitable 18.9% ROI. His 2.03 average trails the typical 2.12 line by 0.1 makes. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Leonard's three-point prop presents one of the cleaner under trends in the market, driven by his evolving role and shot selection patterns. The 37.7% over rate across 61 games isn't marginal variance—it's systematic underperformance against inflated lines. His 2.03 average consistently falling short of the 2.12 line reflects how sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to Leonard's reduced three-point volume in his current role. The Clippers have increasingly utilized Leonard as a mid-range specialist and facilitator rather than a high-volume perimeter shooter, particularly when managing his load throughout games. This role shift explains the persistent under trend, as oddsmakers continue pricing him based on historical peak shooting seasons rather than current usage patterns. The -28% ROI on overs versus +18.9% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Leonard's shot selection has become more selective, focusing on higher-percentage looks rather than volume attempts. The longest under streak of six games compared to just three overs suggests this isn't random distribution but reflects genuine changes in his offensive approach. Without significant injury concerns or role changes forcing increased three-point attempts, this under trend appears sustainable. The key risk would be playoff-style games where Leonard might revert to higher volume, but regular season data strongly supports continued under performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Leonard's 37.7% over rate and consistent average shortfall create a profitable under opportunity, supported by his evolved role emphasizing mid-range efficiency over three-point volume. Target standard props around 2.0-2.5 makes where his 2.03 average provides the best edge. Main risk is occasional high-volume games when the Clippers need his perimeter shooting in specific matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kawhi Leonard's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Leonard's three-pointers made prop record shows 23 overs and 38 unders across 61 games, hitting the over just 37.7% of the time. This represents a significant under bias with unders cashing at a 62.3% rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kawhi Leonard 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Leonard's three-pointers made props. His 37.7% over rate and +18.9% under ROI create a clear edge, especially on lines around 2.0-2.5 makes where his role limits volume attempts.
What's Kawhi Leonard's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Leonard averages 2.03 three-pointers made per game, which runs 0.1 makes below the typical 2.12 line. This consistent shortfall reflects his reduced perimeter volume in the Clippers' current offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Leonard three-point unders on standard props between 2.0-2.5 makes during regular season games. His role as mid-range specialist rather than volume shooter creates the most consistent edge in typical game situations.