Kawhi Leonard's away steals prop shows a modest 53.3% over rate (16-14-0) with a +0.24 average differential above typical lines. The +1.8% ROI on overs suggests slight value, though the edge is minimal. This represents a lean over situation rather than a strong betting angle.
Expert Analysis
Leonard's road steals performance reveals a player who maintains defensive intensity away from home, averaging 1.77 steals against lines typically set around 1.53. The 53.3% over rate across 30 games suggests books may be slightly undervaluing his road defensive activity. Leonard's steal production benefits from increased focus on individual matchups in hostile environments, where he tends to be more engaged defensively to counteract crowd energy. The +0.24 differential indicates consistent outperformance of market expectations, though the modest ROI suggests this edge is already being recognized by sharper bettors. Leonard's steal numbers show remarkable consistency regardless of venue, which works in bettors' favor when books adjust lines downward for road games. However, the sample size limitation and Leonard's injury management could create volatility. His defensive effort often correlates with game importance and rest patterns, making situational factors crucial. The fact that overs hit at a 53.3% clip while maintaining positive ROI indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to Leonard's road defensive consistency, creating a sustainable but narrow edge for disciplined bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Leonard's consistent 1.77 average against 1.53 lines creates a measurable edge in away games, supported by a 53.3% over rate and positive ROI. The ideal spot comes when he's well-rested facing pace-up opponents who create more steal opportunities. Main risk is his load management potentially affecting defensive intensity in less meaningful games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kawhi Leonard's Steals prop record away games?
Leonard's steals prop in away games shows a 16-14-0 over/under record, hitting overs 53.3% of the time with a +1.8% ROI on over bets across 30 road games from November 2023 through March 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kawhi Leonard Steals away games?
Lean over on Leonard's steals in away games. His 1.77 average consistently beats typical 1.53 lines, creating a +0.24 edge with positive ROI. The 53.3% over rate indicates sustainable value in road spots.
What's Kawhi Leonard's average Steals away games?
Leonard averages 1.77 steals in away games compared to typical betting lines around 1.53, creating a +0.24 differential. This consistent outperformance of market expectations drives the modest but profitable over trend.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Leonard steals overs when he's well-rested in road games against pace-up opponents. Avoid back-to-backs or meaningless late-season games where his defensive effort may decrease due to load management protocols.