Kawhi Leonard has been a consistent under performer on his points total over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time while averaging 2.1 points below his closing line. The under bets have generated a solid 14.6% ROI during this stretch. This presents a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Leonard's recent scoring struggles stem from the Clippers' evolving offensive hierarchy and his own load management approach as the season winds down. The 22.2 points per game average represents a significant decline from his season-long expectations, suggesting oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to his reduced offensive burden. The -2.1 differential is substantial enough to indicate this isn't random variance but rather a systematic shift in Leonard's role. His longest under streak of three games demonstrates the consistency of this downturn, while even his brief two-game over streaks failed to reach the heights oddsmakers anticipated. The 23.6% loss rate on overs tells a clear story of inflated lines that haven't caught up to Leonard's current reality. With Paul George healthy and the team prioritizing ball movement, Leonard appears content taking fewer shots and preserving energy for crucial possessions. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify this trend, especially given Leonard's historically consistent usage patterns making any deviation meaningful.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Leonard's 2.1-point deficit per game and 14.6% under ROI indicate oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced offensive role. The trend appears sustainable given the Clippers' depth and Leonard's load management mindset. Primary risk is a potential playoff push motivating increased scoring, but current evidence strongly favors continued under performance on inflated point totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 24.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 22.5 | 29.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 23.5 | 17.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 24.5 | 26.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 23.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 22.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 24.5 | 24.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 25.5 | 28.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 24.5 | 27.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 25.5 | 6.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kawhi Leonard's Points prop record last 10 games?
Leonard has gone 4-6-0 on his points over/under in the last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs. He's averaging 22.2 points against a 24.3 average line, creating a -2.1 point differential that heavily favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kawhi Leonard Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Leonard's points props. The 60% under hit rate and positive 14.6% ROI on under bets, combined with his consistent 2.1-point deficit per game, creates a clear edge against inflated lines.
What's Kawhi Leonard's average Points last 10 games?
Leonard is averaging 22.2 points over his last 10 games compared to an average closing line of 24.3 points. This -2.1 differential represents a significant gap that has consistently favored under bettors during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Leonard under bets when lines remain elevated above 23.5 points, especially in games where the Clippers have multiple scoring options healthy. Avoid betting his props during nationally televised games or playoff-seeding scenarios where motivation spikes.