Julian Champagnie's three-pointers made props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.7% of overs across 12 games with a -20.4% ROI on the over side. The Spurs forward averages 1.58 makes against a typical 1.5 line, but the consistency favors under bettors with +11.4% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Champagnie's home three-point production reveals a player whose shot attempts don't consistently translate to makes in the familiar confines of San Antonio. The 1.58 average against the standard 1.5 line suggests marginal value, but the 41.7% over rate tells the real story - this prop consistently falls short of expectations. The -20.4% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to Champagnie's inconsistent shooting touch at home, where defensive familiarity and potentially altered shot selection patterns work against him. His recent streak pattern shows volatility, with a longest under streak of five games demonstrating extended cold periods that devastate over bettors. The Spurs' pace and offensive system at home may not maximize Champagnie's three-point opportunities, as the team likely emphasizes ball movement and interior scoring in front of their crowd. Without significant role changes or matchup advantages against poor perimeter defenses, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, particularly given Champagnie's role limitations in San Antonio's system. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5, as the 1.58 average provides minimal cushion for variance. Main risk involves increased usage if injuries thin the Spurs' wing rotation, but current data strongly supports the under approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Julian Champagnie's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Julian Champagnie's three-pointers made prop has gone under in 7 of 12 home games (58.3%) this season, producing a 5-7-0 over/under record. Under bettors have enjoyed a positive +11.4% ROI while over bettors face a -20.4% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Julian Champagnie 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Julian Champagnie's three-pointers made at home games. The 58.3% under rate and +11.4% ROI provide a clear edge, especially when the line sits at 1.5 where his 1.58 average offers minimal over cushion.
What's Julian Champagnie's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Julian Champagnie averages 1.58 three-pointers made in home games, just 0.08 above the typical 1.5 line. This minimal differential explains why unders hit 58.3% of the time, as there's little margin for shooting variance or off nights.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Julian Champagnie three-pointers made unders when the line is set at 1.5 in home games. The edge is strongest during extended homestand where defensive familiarity and system limitations consistently suppress his shooting efficiency and volume.