Jrue Holiday's three-point production at home has been a consistent under play, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 26 games. His 1.54 home average runs 0.1 makes below typical lines, generating a strong 17.5% ROI on unders while overs have hemorrhaged 26.6%.
Expert Analysis
Holiday's home three-point struggles stem from Boston's offensive hierarchy and his role adaptation. At TD Garden, Holiday operates more as a facilitator and defensive anchor, with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown commanding primary scoring responsibilities. The Celtics' home court advantage often leads to comfortable wins where Holiday's minutes and shot attempts decrease in fourth quarters. His 1.54 home average versus a typical 1.62 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced offensive role in Boston's system. The veteran guard's shot selection becomes more conservative at home, prioritizing ball movement over individual scoring. Holiday's current two-game under streak aligns with season-long patterns, as his longest over streak maxed at just two games while unders have run as long as four consecutive contests. The 26.6% ROI loss on overs represents substantial market inefficiency, suggesting recreational bettors overvalue Holiday's reputation while sharp money consistently targets the under. Boston's home pace and Holiday's defensive responsibilities create a perfect storm for reduced three-point volume, making this one of the more reliable under trends in the NBA props market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Holiday's 38.5% over rate and negative 0.1 differential from typical lines create clear value on unders at TD Garden. The 17.5% ROI on unders versus 26.6% losses on overs shows consistent market inefficiency. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, especially in games where Boston projects as favorites by 7+ points where Holiday's fourth-quarter usage typically decreases.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jrue Holiday's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Holiday's three-point prop record at home stands at 10-16-0 over/under, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 26 games. This represents one of the more reliable under trends in NBA props, with unders cashing 61.5% of the time at TD Garden.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jrue Holiday 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Holiday's three-point props at home games. The 38.5% over rate and 17.5% ROI on unders versus 26.6% losses on overs creates clear value. Target unders especially when lines are 1.5 or higher in favorable game scripts.
What's Jrue Holiday's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Holiday averages 1.54 three-pointers made in home games, running 0.1 makes below typical market lines of 1.62. This consistent gap between production and expectations drives the strong under performance and represents clear market inefficiency at TD Garden.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holiday three-point unders in home games when Boston is favored by 7+ points and lines sit at 1.5 or higher. His reduced fourth-quarter usage in comfortable wins and conservative shot selection at TD Garden create optimal under conditions.