Jrue Holiday's steals prop shows a modest edge toward overs with a 54.3% hit rate (19-16-0) and +0.13 differential above the typical 0.81 line. While the 3.6% ROI on overs isn't spectacular, Holiday's defensive reputation and consistent floor make this a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Holiday's 0.94 steals per game average represents solid value against the standard 0.81 line, driven by his elite defensive instincts and Boston's aggressive scheme that generates 8.1 steals per game (7th in NBA). The veteran guard's basketball IQ allows him to anticipate passing lanes consistently, creating a reliable floor even when he's not stuffing the stat sheet. However, the modest 3.6% ROI on overs suggests the market has largely adjusted to his defensive impact, making this more of a grinding edge than a sharp angle. The concerning -12.7% ROI on unders indicates that when Holiday fails to reach his line, it's often by significant margins, suggesting his steal production is somewhat binary. His recent two-game under streak isn't alarming given his season-long seven-game over run earlier, but it does highlight the volatility inherent in defensive stats. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but Holiday's veteran savvy typically translates to consistent effort regardless of game situation. Boston's pace and defensive philosophy should continue supporting his steal opportunities, though the narrow edge requires careful line shopping and bankroll management.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Holiday's 0.94 average provides consistent value against the 0.81 line, supported by Boston's defensive system and his elite court awareness. The 54.3% over rate offers a sustainable edge, though the modest ROI demands disciplined betting. Target games where the line stays at 0.5 or Boston faces turnover-prone opponents for maximum value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jrue Holiday's Steals prop record all games?
Holiday's steals prop record stands at 19-16-0 over/under (54.3% overs) across 35 games this season. He's averaging 0.94 steals per game against a typical line of 0.81, creating a +0.13 positive differential that translates to modest but consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jrue Holiday Steals all games?
Lean over on Holiday's steals props. His 0.94 average beats the standard 0.81 line consistently, supported by Boston's defensive system. The 54.3% over rate and 3.6% ROI provide a sustainable edge, though bankroll management is crucial given the modest returns.
What's Jrue Holiday's average Steals all games?
Holiday averages 0.94 steals per game this season, which sits 0.13 steals above the typical 0.81 line. This differential has translated to 19 overs in 35 games (54.3%), creating consistent value for disciplined bettors targeting the over.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holiday steals overs when the line stays at 0.5 and Boston faces turnover-prone teams. His defensive instincts and Boston's aggressive scheme create the best opportunities against sloppy offensive units, though his veteran consistency makes most spots playable.