Jrue Holiday's home points props present a clear under opportunity with a 38.5% over rate across 26 games. Holiday averages just 10.88 points at TD Garden, falling 1.8 points short of his typical 12.69 line, creating a profitable under trend with +17.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Holiday's home scoring struggles stem from Boston's offensive hierarchy and pace dynamics at TD Garden. The veteran guard has settled into a complementary role alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, focusing more on playmaking and defense when the Celtics control games at home. His 10.88 home average represents a significant drop from road environments where he's often asked to create more offense. The 4-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern rooted in role definition. Holiday's shot attempts typically decrease at home as Boston's offensive flow becomes more structured, and his defensive responsibilities often increase against visiting teams' primary ball-handlers. The -1.8 point differential between his average and typical lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this home/road split. With only 10 overs in 26 home games, Holiday consistently fails to reach inflated expectations that don't account for his reduced offensive burden in Boston's home environment. The trend shows remarkable consistency across the sample, suggesting this is a repeatable edge rather than a temporary aberration.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Holiday's home scoring consistently falls short of oddsmakers' expectations due to his reduced offensive role in Boston's structured home attack. Target unders when his line sits above 12 points, especially against defensively challenged opponents where Boston may coast. The primary risk is overtime games or blowout losses where Holiday sees extended garbage time minutes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 5.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 7.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 12.5 | 7.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 13.5 | 17.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jrue Holiday's Points prop record home games?
Holiday has gone under his points prop in 16 of 26 home games (61.5% under rate) with an average of 10.88 points. His 10-16 over/under record shows consistent underperformance at TD Garden throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jrue Holiday Points home games?
Bet the under on Holiday's home points props. His 38.5% over rate and -1.8 average differential from typical lines create a profitable under opportunity with +17.5% ROI documented across 26 games.
What's Jrue Holiday's average Points home games?
Holiday averages 10.88 points in home games, which is 1.8 points below his typical line of 12.69. This significant gap indicates oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for his reduced home offensive role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holiday points unders at home when his line exceeds 12 points, particularly against weaker defensive teams where Boston may build large leads and reduce his offensive responsibilities in structured game flow.