Jrue Holiday's assists prop shows a clear underdog lean with just 48.3% overs hitting across 58 games. His 4.52 average trails the typical 4.67 line by 0.2 assists, creating modest but consistent value on the under with a -1.2% ROI versus -7.8% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Holiday's assist production reflects his transformed role in Boston's championship-caliber system. Unlike his New Orleans days where he shouldered primary playmaking duties, Holiday now operates as the third or fourth option behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown's creation. The Celtics' elite offensive rating means possessions often end in quick scores without requiring Holiday's facilitation. His 4.52 average consistently falling short of the 4.67 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced usage rate in this star-heavy rotation. The -7.8% ROI on overs indicates the market persistently overvalues his passing output, likely influenced by his historical assist numbers from previous stops. Boston's pace and ball movement system distributes assists across multiple players rather than concentrating them in Holiday's hands. The 28-30 over-under split with recent streaks staying relatively short (longest over streak of 5) suggests this isn't a volatile prop but rather a steady pattern of modest underperformance. Holiday's defensive focus and off-ball movement in Boston's scheme naturally limits his assist opportunities compared to more traditional point guard roles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates steady value, though the edge isn't massive enough for aggressive betting. Target games where Boston faces elite defenses that force more ball movement, or when Holiday starts alongside multiple scorers who can finish his passes. Main risk is potential lineup changes or injury situations that could thrust Holiday into expanded playmaking duties.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jrue Holiday's Assists prop record all games?
Holiday's assists prop record stands at 28-30-0 over-under across 58 games, hitting the over just 48.3% of the time. His average of 4.52 assists consistently falls short of the typical 4.67 line by 0.2 assists per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jrue Holiday Assists all games?
Lean under on Holiday's assists props. The consistent gap between his 4.52 average and 4.67 line, combined with better ROI on unders (-1.2% vs -7.8%), suggests the market overvalues his passing in Boston's system.
What's Jrue Holiday's average Assists all games?
Holiday averages 4.52 assists per game across all situations, which trails the standard 4.67 line by 0.2 assists. This consistent shortfall reflects his reduced playmaking role in Boston's star-heavy offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holiday assists unders when Boston faces strong defenses that limit easy scoring opportunities, or in games where he starts alongside multiple ball-handlers. Avoid when key Celtics scorers are injured and Holiday assumes expanded duties.