Josh Hart's three-pointers made prop shows clear under value with a 42.9% over rate across 35 games. His 1.0 average barely exceeds the 0.93 line, while under bets deliver +9.1% ROI versus -18.2% for overs. This is a consistent fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Josh Hart's three-point prop presents a textbook case of market inefficiency favoring the under. His 15-20-0 over/under record translates to just 42.9% overs, significantly below the break-even threshold needed for profitable over betting. The numbers reveal why: Hart averages exactly 1.0 made threes against a typical 0.93 line, creating minimal margin for error. This razor-thin edge becomes problematic when considering Hart's role evolution with the Knicks. He's transformed into a versatile utility player who prioritizes rebounding, playmaking, and defensive versatility over volume shooting. Hart's three-point attempts have become increasingly situational rather than systematic, making him prone to those devastating 0-for-3 or 0-for-4 shooting nights that crush over bettors. The -18.2% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a prop where the market consistently overvalues Hart's three-point production. His longest under streak of eight games demonstrates the sustainability of quiet shooting performances, while his longest over streak caps at just four games. The under's +9.1% ROI isn't spectacular, but it represents genuine edge in a market that hasn't properly adjusted to Hart's reduced offensive role. This trend appears sustainable given Hart's current usage patterns and the Knicks' depth at perimeter shooting positions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.1% under rate and positive ROI create legitimate value, though the edge isn't overwhelming. Hart's role as a secondary option limits his three-point volume, making quiet shooting nights more frequent than explosive ones. Target this prop when Hart faces strong perimeter defenses or in lower-scoring game environments where his attempts naturally decrease.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Josh Hart has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 15 of 35 games (42.9%) this season. His 15-20-0 record shows the under hitting at a 57.1% rate, well above the break-even threshold for profitable betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Josh Hart's three-pointers made props. The under has hit 57.1% of the time with +9.1% ROI, while overs lose money at -18.2% ROI. His role limits consistent volume shooting.
What's Josh Hart's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Josh Hart averages exactly 1.0 three-pointers made per game against a typical 0.93 line. This minimal 0.07 edge provides little margin for error, explaining why overs struggle at just 42.9% success rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hart's three-point unders when facing strong perimeter defenses or in projected lower-scoring games. His secondary offensive role makes him vulnerable to quiet shooting nights, especially when game flow doesn't favor his attempts.