Josh Hart's blocks prop presents a crushing under opportunity with a historically bad 22.6% over rate across 31 games. Hart averages just 0.29 blocks against a 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential that has delivered +47.8% ROI on unders. This is a high-conviction fade.
Expert Analysis
Josh Hart's blocks production reveals a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. At 6'5" and playing primarily guard positions, Hart simply lacks the size and rim protection responsibilities to consistently generate blocks. His 0.29 average against the standard 0.5 line represents a significant structural edge, as sportsbooks appear to overvalue his defensive activity in other areas like steals and rebounds. The Knicks' defensive scheme rarely positions Hart as a help defender or rim protector, instead utilizing his lateral quickness and anticipation skills in passing lanes. This role limitation creates persistent value on the under, as evidenced by the 77.4% under rate and impressive +47.8% ROI. The 11-game under streak in the sample demonstrates how rarely Hart reaches even 0.5 blocks, suggesting this isn't random variance but a systematic underperformance driven by positional constraints. Hart's defensive value comes through hustle plays and rebounding, not shot blocking, making this one of the most reliable under bets in the prop market. The -56.9% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a line that consistently overestimates Hart's rim protection impact.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hart's 22.6% over rate and -0.2 average differential create exceptional value on the under side. His guard-heavy role in New York's system rarely puts him in shot-blocking situations, making 0.5 blocks a consistently high bar. Target this prop in any game situation, as Hart's positional limitations override matchup-specific factors. The primary risk is an unusually aggressive defensive game plan, but Hart's season-long data suggests this edge persists regardless of opponent.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's Blocks prop record all games?
Hart's blocks prop record stands at 7-24-0 over/under across 31 games, translating to a dismal 22.6% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in the market, with unders hitting 77.4% of the time.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart Blocks all games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Hart's 0.29 blocks average falls well short of the 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential that has produced +47.8% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage -56.9% ROI.
What's Josh Hart's average Blocks all games?
Hart averages 0.29 blocks per game against the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential. This gap represents significant value, as he consistently falls short of even the modest 0.5 threshold by a meaningful margin.
How reliable is this trend?
Every game presents betting value given Hart's role limitations. His guard-heavy positioning in New York's system creates consistent under opportunities regardless of opponent, making this one of the most matchup-independent props available.