Josh Hart delivers exceptional assists value in home games, hitting the over 57.9% of the time with a +10.5% ROI across 19 games. His 5.21 average consistently beats the typical 4.87 line by 0.3 assists per game. This represents a clear lean over with sustainable edge.
Expert Analysis
Hart's home assists advantage stems from the Knicks' offensive rhythm at Madison Square Garden, where familiar surroundings and crowd energy amplify his court vision and playmaking aggression. The 5.21 home average reflects Hart's expanded role as a secondary facilitator, particularly when Jalen Brunson faces defensive pressure or the offense stagnates. His 57.9% over rate isn't just hot variance — it's rooted in structural advantages. Home games eliminate travel fatigue that can dull reaction time and decision-making, while the familiar sight lines and rim bounces help Hart anticipate teammate movement patterns. The +0.3 differential between his average and typical lines suggests bookmakers haven't fully adjusted to his elevated home playmaking. However, the recent 2-game under streak and -19.6% under ROI indicate this isn't a slam dunk. Hart's assists can crater when the Knicks shoot poorly from three, as drive-and-kick opportunities evaporate. His playmaking also suffers in blowouts where garbage time reduces meaningful possessions. The key risk is regression — 57.9% over rates rarely sustain long-term without underlying skill changes. Still, Hart's consistent 5+ assist performances at home suggest legitimate skill-based edge rather than lucky bounces.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Hart's home assists advantage appears legitimate, driven by comfort and expanded playmaking responsibilities rather than random variance. The 5.21 average beating 4.87 lines creates consistent value, especially in competitive games where his facilitation matters most. Main risk is the recent under streak potentially signaling regression, but the underlying factors remain strong.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's Assists prop record home games?
Hart posts an 11-8 over/under record in home assists props, hitting the over 57.9% of the time across 19 games. This translates to a profitable +10.5% ROI on over bets while under bets lose -19.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart Assists home games?
Lean over on Hart's home assists props. His 5.21 average consistently beats typical 4.87 lines, creating sustainable value. Focus on competitive games where his playmaking role maximizes, avoiding potential blowouts that reduce meaningful possessions.
What's Josh Hart's average Assists home games?
Hart averages 5.21 assists in home games, beating the typical 4.87 line by 0.3 assists per contest. This differential represents genuine value, as bookmakers haven't fully adjusted to his elevated home playmaking performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hart assists overs in close home games against quality opponents where his secondary playmaking becomes crucial. Avoid blowout spots or games where the Knicks project to struggle offensively, reducing his assist opportunities significantly.