Jonathan Kuminga's assists prop shows clear under value at home, hitting just 41.7% overs across 12 games with a -20.4% ROI on overs. His 2.75 average barely exceeds the 2.5 line, making the under the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
Kuminga's assist struggles at Chase Center reflect his role as a finisher rather than facilitator in Golden State's motion offense. The 41.7% over rate isn't just bad luck – it's structural. At home, the Warriors typically control pace and flow, leading to more defined roles where Kuminga focuses on scoring off cuts and drives rather than creating for others. His 2.75 average represents the ceiling more than the floor, as assist props are notoriously volatile for role players. The -20.4% ROI on overs tells the story of a line that consistently overvalues his playmaking. Kuminga's longest under streak of four games suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his limited distribution role. The fact that he's averaging just 0.25 assists above the line indicates this prop regularly comes down to one or two marginal plays, where his natural scoring instincts work against the over. Home games eliminate travel fatigue variables, meaning this trend reflects his true role rather than circumstantial factors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge against an overinflated line. Kuminga's role as a scorer, not distributor, becomes more pronounced at home where Golden State's system runs smoothly. The main risk is a blowout game where garbage time creates extra possessions, but the structural advantage favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Jonathan Kuminga props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Kuminga's Assists prop record home games?
Kuminga is 5-7 on assists overs in home games, hitting just 41.7% with a -20.4% ROI. The under has been profitable at +11.4% ROI across 12 home games this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Kuminga Assists home games?
Bet the under. Kuminga's 58.3% under rate and positive ROI on unders reflects his limited playmaking role at home, where he focuses more on scoring than distribution.
What's Jonathan Kuminga's average Assists home games?
Kuminga averages 2.75 assists in home games, just 0.25 above the typical 2.5 line. This minimal edge suggests the prop consistently overvalues his passing ability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target under bets when Golden State is favored at home and the line sits at 2.5. Avoid when they're trailing or in potential blowout spots that create garbage time.