Jonas Valančiūnas has been a three-point desert over his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs while averaging 0.3 makes against a 0.5 line. The veteran center's minimal three-point volume and traditional playing style create a strong under trend worth exploiting.
Expert Analysis
Valančiūnas represents the dying breed of traditional centers who operate primarily in the paint, making his three-point props consistently mispriced by books. His 0.3 average over 10 games against a 0.5 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. The Kings utilize Valančiūnas as a low-post anchor and pick-and-roll finisher, roles that rarely require him to venture beyond the arc. His 2-8-0 record isn't fluky variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in role and skill set. The -61.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how sharply the market has been punishing three-point optimism on the Lithuanian big man. Even in today's pace-and-space NBA, some players remain stubbornly traditional, and Valančiūnas exemplifies this resistance to modern offensive trends. His three consecutive unders to close this sample period underscore the consistency of this approach. The 0.5 line suggests books expect him to make a three-pointer every other game, but his actual usage patterns and shot selection make this wildly optimistic. Sacramento's offensive system doesn't demand perimeter shooting from their center position, allowing Valančiūnas to remain in his comfort zone near the basket.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Valančiūnas's traditional center role and minimal three-point volume make the 0.5 line consistently inflated. The 20% over rate across 10 games isn't sample size noise—it's a systematic edge rooted in his playing style and Sacramento's offensive scheme. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, as books continue overestimating his perimeter involvement. The main risk is garbage time attempts in blowouts, but even then, Valančiūnas rarely hunts threes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonas Valančiūnas's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Valančiūnas has gone 2-8-0 on three-pointers made overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% while averaging 0.3 makes against a typical 0.5 line. This represents a -0.2 differential and -61.8% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonas Valančiūnas 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. His traditional center role and 20% over rate create a systematic edge against the 0.5 line. The market consistently overestimates his three-point involvement in Sacramento's offense.
What's Jonas Valančiūnas's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Valančiūnas averages 0.3 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, running 0.2 below the standard 0.5 line. This differential reflects his limited perimeter role in Sacramento's offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Valančiūnas three-point unders when the line sits at 0.5, especially in games where Sacramento projects to control pace. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could produce desperate heaves.