Jonas Valančiūnas hits the over on three-pointers made just 42.9% of the time in away games, creating a strong under trend. His 0.62 average barely exceeds the 0.5 line, while the under delivers +9.1% ROI compared to -18.2% losses on overs. This presents a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Valančiūnas's three-point struggles on the road stem from his traditional center role and Sacramento's offensive system. The 0.62 average in away games suggests he's attempting roughly 1.5 threes per road contest, connecting at approximately 41% - respectable efficiency but insufficient volume to consistently clear even the modest 0.5 line. Road environments typically reduce role players' comfort levels, and Valančiūnas fits this profile despite his veteran status. The Kings' pace and offensive hierarchy likely limit his three-point opportunities, particularly when trailing in hostile venues where the game plan shifts toward interior scoring and rebounding. The -18.2% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his road limitations, creating value on the under. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though the previous five-game over streak shows he can get hot. The lack of split data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but the sample size of 21 games provides reasonable confidence in the trend's legitimacy.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Valančiūnas's 42.9% over rate and negative ROI on road three-pointers creates consistent value betting the under. The 0.62 average provides little cushion above the 0.5 line, making this prop vulnerable to his natural shooting variance. Target games where Sacramento faces strong interior defenses that might force more perimeter attempts, as these represent the main risk to the under thesis.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonas Valančiūnas's 3-Pointers Made prop record away games?
Valančiūnas goes over 0.5 three-pointers made in just 9 of 21 away games (42.9%), with 12 unders. His road three-point props show a clear pattern favoring the under, generating positive ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonas Valančiūnas 3-Pointers Made away games?
Bet the under on Valančiūnas's three-pointers made in away games. The 42.9% over rate and +9.1% ROI on unders create consistent value, especially with his 0.62 average providing minimal cushion above the 0.5 line.
What's Jonas Valančiūnas's average 3-Pointers Made away games?
Valančiūnas averages 0.62 three-pointers made in away games, just 0.12 above the typical 0.5 line. This narrow margin explains why he fails to hit the over 57.1% of the time on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target away games against defensively strong teams that might limit interior scoring, forcing more perimeter attempts. Avoid games where Sacramento is heavily favored, as blowouts could increase his three-point opportunities in garbage time.