Jonas Valančiūnas presents a clear under opportunity with just 39.1% overs across 23 games, going 9-14-0 against his 0.5 three-pointers line. Despite averaging 0.57 makes, the under delivers +16.2% ROI while overs hemorrhage -25.3%. The trend leans strongly toward consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Valančiūnas's three-point prop reveals a classic case of market inefficiency favoring disciplined under bettors. His 39.1% over rate across 23 games demonstrates remarkable consistency in staying below expectations, even with a 0.57 average that technically exceeds the 0.5 line. The key lies in understanding that averaging 0.57 doesn't translate to hitting overs 57% of the time due to the binary nature of props. When Valančiūnas connects on multiple threes, it inflates his average while still representing isolated events. His current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, where he's recorded four separate under streaks of 3+ games. The -25.3% ROI on overs tells a brutal story for optimistic bettors, while under backers enjoy a healthy +16.2% return. This isn't a fluke – it's systematic value creation. Valančiūnas operates as a traditional center who occasionally spots up from deep rather than a volume three-point shooter. His role in Sacramento's offense prioritizes interior presence over perimeter shooting, making the 0.5 line consistently generous. The absence of split data actually strengthens the under case, as it suggests no significant situational factors drive his three-point volume higher in specific conditions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 39.1% over rate and +16.2% under ROI create compelling value, but the small 0.07 differential between his average and the line prevents high conviction. Target this prop when Valančiūnas faces teams that pack the paint or in games where Sacramento emphasizes interior scoring. The main risk is variance – a single hot shooting night can break under streaks, but the long-term edge favors disciplined under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonas Valančiūnas's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Valančiūnas has gone 9-14-0 on his three-pointers made prop across 23 games, hitting overs just 39.1% of the time. This translates to under bets winning at a 60.9% clip, creating consistent value for disciplined bettors targeting the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonas Valančiūnas 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the under. With only 39.1% overs and a +16.2% ROI on under bets versus -25.3% losses on overs, the data strongly favors taking the under on Valančiūnas's three-point props consistently throughout the season.
What's Jonas Valančiūnas's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Valančiūnas averages 0.57 three-pointers made per game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a +0.07 differential. However, this small edge doesn't translate to over success due to the binary nature of props and his inconsistent three-point volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Valančiūnas three-point unders when Sacramento faces defensive teams that limit perimeter opportunities or emphasize interior defense. His traditional center role makes him most likely to stay under when game flow favors post-up offense over outside shooting.