Joel Embiid's assists prop shows clear home-court value, hitting the over in 13 of 22 games (59.1%) with a +0.7 average differential above the typical 5.23 line. The +12.8% ROI on overs indicates sustainable edge. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The 59.1% over rate on Embiid's assists at home reflects his enhanced playmaking comfort in familiar surroundings. Averaging 5.95 assists versus a 5.23 line creates consistent value, particularly when considering how Philadelphia's offensive system flows through their franchise center. The +12.8% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't random variance but a legitimate market inefficiency. Embiid's court vision and passing lanes improve dramatically at home where he reads defensive rotations better and teammates anticipate his deliveries more effectively. The current two-game over streak aligns with his historical pattern of longer over runs (five games) compared to under streaks (three games maximum). However, the -21.9% under ROI suggests books haven't fully adjusted, creating line shopping opportunities. The sustainability concerns center on Embiid's health and Philadelphia's pace variations, but his home assist production has remained remarkably consistent across different lineups and game scripts. When Embiid plays at home, he becomes more of a facilitator, using his size advantage to create easier passing angles and exploit double teams more effectively than on the road.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 59.1% hit rate combined with +0.7 differential above market lines creates legitimate value on Embiid's home assists props. Target this bet when the line sits at 5.0 or 5.5, avoiding inflated numbers above 6.0. Main risk is Embiid's injury management affecting his floor time and willingness to facilitate rather than score.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joel Embiid's Assists prop record home games?
Joel Embiid's assists prop has gone over in 13 of 22 home games (59.1%) with a 13-9-0 over/under record. He averages 5.95 assists at home against a typical line of 5.23, creating consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joel Embiid Assists home games?
Lean over on Joel Embiid's assists props at home. The 59.1% hit rate and +0.7 differential above market lines create legitimate value, especially when the line stays at 5.5 or below.
What's Joel Embiid's average Assists home games?
Joel Embiid averages 5.95 assists in home games, which is 0.7 assists above the typical market line of 5.23. This consistent differential has produced a +12.8% ROI on over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Embiid assists overs when he's at home with lines at 5.0 or 5.5. Avoid when the line inflates above 6.0 or when injury reports suggest limited minutes or reduced facilitating role.