Jimmy Butler III has been a consistent under performer on his points props, hitting the over just 30% of the time across his last 10 games with a brutal -3.1 point differential. The Heat star is currently riding a three-game under streak, making his under bets a strong consideration moving forward.
Expert Analysis
Jimmy Butler III's points production has fallen dramatically short of expectations, averaging just 17.7 points against lines consistently set around 20.8 points. This 3.1-point gap represents significant value erosion that appears systematic rather than random variance. The 30% over rate indicates oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted to Butler's declining offensive output during this stretch. Several factors likely drive this trend: Miami's improved ball movement reducing Butler's individual usage, his preference for facilitating over scoring in certain game scripts, and potential load management considerations as the Heat navigate playoff positioning. The three-game under streak suggests momentum, though regression remains possible given Butler's proven scoring ability. What's particularly noteworthy is the consistency of the underperformance - this isn't a case of one massive outlier skewing the average, but rather sustained production below market expectations. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the complete story of how badly the market has mispriced Butler's current scoring output. However, bettors should remain cautious of potential positive regression, especially in must-win scenarios where Butler historically elevates his individual scoring.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Butler's 3.1-point average shortfall and 30% over rate indicate the market hasn't properly adjusted to his current role within Miami's offense. The three-game under streak adds momentum, but his proven scoring ability prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target games where Miami faces quality opponents that could limit his efficiency or force more team-oriented play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 19.5 | 15.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 14.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 12.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 22.5 | 25.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 20.5 | 27.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 20.5 | 22.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 20.5 | 20.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 19.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 21.5 | 8.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jimmy Butler III's Points prop record last 10 games?
Jimmy Butler III has gone over his points prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30% rate) with a 3-7-0 record. He's averaging 17.7 points against typical lines around 20.8, creating a significant 3.1-point differential favoring under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jimmy Butler III Points last 10 games?
Lean under on Jimmy Butler III's points props. His 30% over rate and 3.1-point average shortfall indicate the market hasn't adjusted to his current offensive role. The three-game under streak adds momentum, though his scoring ability prevents maximum confidence.
What's Jimmy Butler III's average Points last 10 games?
Jimmy Butler III is averaging 17.7 points over his last 10 games, which falls 3.1 points short of his typical line around 20.8. This represents a significant underperformance that has created consistent value on under bets during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jimmy Butler III under bets when Miami faces quality defensive teams or in games where the Heat are favored and likely to rely on balanced scoring. Avoid in must-win playoff scenarios where his individual scoring historically increases significantly.