Jimmy Butler III's blocks prop on one day rest presents a historically dominant under opportunity, hitting just 11.5% overs across 26 games with an average of 0.15 blocks against typical 0.5 lines. Currently riding an 8-game under streak with a season-long 13-game under run, this represents a high-conviction under play.
Expert Analysis
Jimmy Butler III's blocks production on one day rest reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. Averaging just 0.15 blocks per game in this rest scenario, Butler falls dramatically short of the standard 0.5 block line, creating a massive -0.35 differential that suggests either market inefficiency or a legitimate physical constraint. The 11.5% over rate across 26 games isn't just poor—it's historically bad for a prop bet, indicating this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Butler's role as Miami's primary offensive initiator likely explains this trend, as increased ball-handling responsibilities on shorter rest may reduce his defensive positioning and rim protection opportunities. The current 8-game under streak, following a season-long 13-game under run, demonstrates remarkable consistency in this specific context. With a -78% ROI on overs versus +68.9% on unders, the market has been slow to adjust to Butler's diminished shot-blocking when playing on one day rest. The absence of any meaningful over streaks (longest just 1 game) suggests this isn't a matchup-dependent issue but rather a fundamental change in Butler's defensive impact under these rest conditions.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Butler's 0.15 blocks average on one day rest creates an enormous edge against 0.5 lines, supported by an 88.5% under rate and current 8-game streak. The market consistently overvalues his shot-blocking in this scenario, making this one of the most reliable under plays available. Primary risk is potential line adjustment, but until books move to 0.5 under juice or lower totals, this remains a premium fade spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Blocks Prop Lines
Compare Jimmy Butler III props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jimmy Butler III's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Jimmy Butler III goes 3-23-0 over/under on blocks props with one day rest, hitting just 11.5% overs across 26 games from November 2023 through April 2024, representing one of the most lopsided prop records available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jimmy Butler III Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet UNDER on Jimmy Butler III blocks with one day rest. His 0.15 average against typical 0.5 lines creates a massive edge, supported by an 88.5% under rate and +68.9% ROI that makes this a premium fade opportunity.
What's Jimmy Butler III's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Jimmy Butler III averages 0.15 blocks per game on one day rest, creating a significant -0.35 differential against standard 0.5 block lines and demonstrating why this prop consistently goes under in this specific rest scenario.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jimmy Butler III blocks unders specifically on one day rest scenarios where he averages just 0.15 blocks. Avoid when he has 2+ days rest, as this trend appears uniquely tied to shorter recovery periods affecting his defensive positioning.