Jimmy Butler's assists props present a clear under opportunity with just 45.7% overs across 46 games this season. His 5.15 average barely exceeds the 5.11 line, while unders deliver +3.8% ROI compared to -12.8% on overs. The mathematical edge favors consistent under betting.
Expert Analysis
Butler's assist production reveals a player whose playmaking responsibilities have diminished within Miami's evolved offensive system. The 5.15 average against a 5.11 line represents minimal value on overs, especially considering the negative skew in his distribution. Butler's role as Miami's primary scorer often conflicts with high assist totals, as his usage shifts toward isolation scoring rather than facilitation. The Heat's pace and offensive structure limit natural assist opportunities, with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo handling significant playmaking duties. Butler's assist numbers show little correlation with game script or opponent strength, suggesting systemic rather than situational factors drive this trend. The 21-25 over/under record isn't just poor luck—it reflects a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and Butler's actual role. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates the sustainability of this pattern, while the brief three-game over streak appears more anomalous. Miami's half-court offense generates fewer transition assists, where Butler historically thrived. The consistency of under results across different game situations indicates this isn't matchup-dependent but rather reflects Butler's current offensive responsibilities and the team's strategic approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Butler's assist props offer genuine value based on role definition rather than temporary slumps. The 54.3% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge. Target games where Miami faces elite defenses that force more isolation plays, maximizing Butler's scoring focus over facilitation. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or injuries that could increase his playmaking load.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Jimmy Butler III props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jimmy Butler III's Assists prop record all games?
Butler has gone over his assists prop in just 21 of 46 games this season (45.7%), with an average of 5.15 assists against a typical line of 5.11. This 21-25 under/over record shows consistent market overvaluation of his playmaking.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jimmy Butler III Assists all games?
Bet under on Butler's assists props. The 54.3% under rate with +3.8% ROI provides clear mathematical advantage, while his current role emphasizes scoring over facilitation. This trend shows sustainability rather than temporary variance.
What's Jimmy Butler III's average Assists all games?
Butler averages 5.15 assists per game this season, barely exceeding the typical 5.11 line by just 0.04 assists. This minimal differential combined with his 45.7% over rate indicates the market consistently overestimates his assist production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler assist unders when Miami faces strong defenses that force isolation plays, maximizing his scoring focus. Games with slower pace or when the Heat trail also favor unders, as Butler shifts toward aggressive scoring rather than playmaking.