Jeremy Sochan's steals prop shows solid over value on one day rest, hitting at 55.2% across 29 games with a healthy +0.3 differential above the 0.5 line. The 16-13 over record generates positive ROI despite recent regression. Lean over with measured confidence.
Expert Analysis
Sochan's steals production on one day rest reveals a player whose defensive aggression benefits from adequate recovery time. The 0.79 average against a 0.5 line represents significant value, though the modest 55.2% hit rate suggests this isn't a slam dunk proposition. The +5.3% ROI on overs indicates sustainable profit potential, while the -14.4% under ROI warns against fading this trend. Sochan's defensive role as a versatile forward allows him to generate steals through multiple avenues - help defense rotations, switching onto guards, and anticipating passing lanes. The one day rest factor appears crucial, as it provides enough recovery to maintain the lateral quickness and court awareness necessary for steal generation without the rust that comes from extended layoffs. The current two-game under streak shouldn't overshadow the broader trend, especially considering Sochan previously hit a five-game over streak. His defensive motor and San Antonio's emphasis on creating turnovers align perfectly with this prop's over tendency. The sample size of 29 games provides reasonable confidence, though bettors should monitor any shifts in his defensive role or the team's overall strategy.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.79 average significantly exceeds the 0.5 line, creating consistent value despite the modest hit rate. Sochan's defensive versatility and the Spurs' aggressive defensive scheme support continued steal production on proper rest. Primary risk lies in potential role changes or defensive scheme adjustments that could limit his steal opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Jeremy Sochan goes 16-13 over on steals props with one day rest, hitting overs at 55.2% across 29 games. His average of 0.79 steals creates a +0.3 differential above the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Steals 1 day rest?
Lean over on Sochan's steals with one day rest. The 0.79 average significantly exceeds the 0.5 line, and his defensive role generates multiple steal opportunities through rotations and switches.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Steals 1 day rest?
Sochan averages 0.79 steals on one day rest compared to the standard 0.5 line. This +0.3 differential represents substantial value, though the 55.2% hit rate requires measured position sizing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan steals overs when San Antonio plays aggressive defense and he's matched against ball-handling forwards or smaller lineups. Avoid when he's primarily defending centers or in blowout scenarios.