Jeremy Sochan's steals prop shows a clear under bias in home games, hitting under 0.5 steals 61.1% of the time with a 7-11-0 record. Despite averaging 0.67 steals per home game, the under bet delivers a solid 16.7% ROI while overs lose at -25.8%. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Jeremy Sochan's home steals production reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw averages and betting value. While his 0.67 steals per game exceeds the standard 0.5 line by a meaningful 0.17 margin, the distribution heavily favors under outcomes at the Frost Bank Center. The 61.1% under rate suggests Sochan's steal production at home follows a boom-or-bust pattern rather than consistent baseline performance. This volatility likely stems from San Antonio's defensive scheme adjustments at home, where Sochan may be assigned more help-defense responsibilities that limit his opportunities for aggressive steal attempts. The Spurs' pace and defensive positioning at home appears to constrain Sochan's freelancing ability, creating fewer gambling opportunities for steals. The recent four-game under streak followed by two more unders indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Home court defensive assignments often emphasize team structure over individual statistical accumulation, which explains why a player can average above the line yet consistently fall short of it. The -25.8% ROI on overs despite the higher average confirms this is a classic case where the mean misleads bettors into poor value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 61.1% under rate combined with positive 16.7% ROI creates legitimate value despite Sochan averaging above the line. Home defensive schemes appear to consistently limit his steal opportunities through more structured positioning. Target games where San Antonio faces slower-paced opponents who minimize transition opportunities. Main risk is a defensive game plan change that unleashes Sochan's aggressive tendencies.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Steals prop record home games?
Jeremy Sochan has gone under 0.5 steals in 11 of 18 home games (61.1%) with a 7-11-0 over/under record. The under bet has generated a positive 16.7% ROI while overs lose money at -25.8% despite his 0.67 average.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Steals home games?
Bet under on Jeremy Sochan's steals in home games. The 61.1% under rate and positive 16.7% ROI provide clear value despite his average exceeding the line. Home defensive schemes consistently limit his steal opportunities through structured positioning.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Steals home games?
Jeremy Sochan averages 0.67 steals per home game, which is 0.17 above the standard 0.5 line. However, this higher average is misleading as he hits under the line 61.1% of the time due to boom-or-bust distribution patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jeremy Sochan steals unders when San Antonio faces slower-paced opponents at home who limit transition opportunities. Games against methodical offensive teams create fewer gambling chances for steals, maximizing the value of the persistent under trend.