Jeremy Sochan's steals prop presents a classic trap scenario with a 48.8% over rate (21-22-0) despite averaging 0.77 steals against a 0.5 line. The -6.8% ROI on overs signals consistent market overvaluation. This is a lean under situation with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Sochan's steals profile reveals a fundamental disconnect between perception and production. While his 0.77 average appears comfortably above the 0.5 line, the 48.8% over rate tells the real story of inconsistent defensive disruption. The -6.8% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently prices this prop too high, likely influenced by Sochan's reputation as an active defender and his 6'9" frame creating visual expectations that don't match statistical reality. His steal production lacks the consistency required for profitable over betting, with defensive steals being inherently volatile and matchup-dependent. The current two-game under streak aligns with his broader pattern of inconsistency. Sochan's role as a versatile forward often has him guarding multiple positions, but this versatility doesn't translate to consistent steal opportunities. His longest over streak of six games suggests occasional hot runs, but the overall sample shows these are outliers rather than sustainable trends. The modest under ROI of -2.3% indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his true steal rate, creating a slight edge for disciplined under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market consistently overvalues Sochan's steal potential, creating a 6.8% edge for under bettors. While his 0.77 average beats the 0.5 line, the 48.8% over rate reveals the inconsistency that makes overs unprofitable. Target this prop when the line stays at 0.5, avoiding any inflated numbers. The main risk is variance-driven hot streaks that can temporarily inflate his steal rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Steals prop record all games?
Sochan's steals prop record is 21-22-0 over/under across 43 games, hitting just 48.8% overs. This translates to a -6.8% ROI for over bettors and -2.3% for under bettors, showing consistent market overvaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Steals all games?
Lean under on Sochan's steals props. Despite averaging 0.77 steals against a 0.5 line, his 48.8% over rate and -6.8% over ROI indicate the market overvalues his steal consistency. The edge favors disciplined under betting.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Steals all games?
Sochan averages 0.77 steals per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a +0.3 differential. However, this average masks significant inconsistency, as evidenced by the sub-50% over rate that makes the prop unprofitable long-term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan's steals under when the line remains at 0.5, avoiding any market inflation. His inconsistent defensive disruption and the market's persistent overvaluation create the best edge during standard pricing situations.