Jeremy Sochan's points prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity with a 57.9% success rate across 38 games. The forward averages 10.58 points against an 11.45 line, creating a consistent -0.9 differential that has generated +10.5% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic undervaluation in Sochan's points lines when playing on one day rest. His 10.58 average against an 11.45 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for how rest patterns affect his offensive output. The 42.1% over rate across 38 games isn't just variance—it represents a structural edge that's persisted throughout the sample period. Sochan's role as a defensive-minded forward who often sacrifices offensive touches for team needs becomes more pronounced on back-to-back scenarios, where his energy allocation favors his primary strengths. The -19.6% ROI on overs confirms this isn't a small sample fluke but rather a consistent market inefficiency. While the current streak shows one over, the longer trend patterns (longest under streak of 4 games) demonstrate the sustainability of this edge. The key risk lies in potential role expansion or injury situations that could shift his usage, but the sample size provides confidence that this represents Sochan's true baseline performance level on standard rest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.9% under success rate and +10.5% ROI create a sustainable edge worth targeting. Sochan's defensive-first mentality and consistent underperformance against inflated lines make this a reliable spot. The main risk is role changes or blowout game scripts, but the data supports continued under performance on one day rest.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 20.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 21.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 12.5 | 18.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Jeremy Sochan's points prop record on one day rest is 16-22-0 over/under, hitting the over just 42.1% of the time across 38 games. This translates to unders cashing at a 57.9% rate with strong consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Jeremy Sochan's points when he has one day rest. The 57.9% under success rate and +10.5% ROI make this a profitable long-term strategy, especially given his defensive-first playing style.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Points 1 day rest?
Jeremy Sochan averages 10.58 points on one day rest, which runs 0.9 points below the typical 11.45 line. This consistent gap has created value for under bettors throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jeremy Sochan points unders specifically on one day rest scenarios where his defensive role is prioritized. Avoid during potential blowouts or when injury reports suggest expanded offensive usage for the forward.