Jeremy Sochan's scoring has been consistently underwhelming, hitting the over in just 30% of his last 10 games while averaging 1.9 points below his typical line. With a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs and strong 33.6% returns on unders, the data screams fade the scoring props.
Expert Analysis
Sochan's scoring struggles reflect his evolving role in San Antonio's system, where his value comes primarily through playmaking, rebounding, and defensive versatility rather than consistent offensive production. The 10.8 scoring average against a 12.7 line suggests oddsmakers are still pricing him based on his ceiling rather than his floor, creating systematic value on the under. His recent five-game under streak before the current single over indicates a player whose scoring opportunities remain inconsistent and matchup-dependent. The Spurs' pace and offensive hierarchy, combined with Sochan's natural tendencies as a facilitator-first forward, limit his shot attempts and high-percentage looks. While his athleticism and improving jump shot provide occasional scoring bursts, the sample shows these performances are outliers rather than trends. The massive gap between over and under ROI (-42.7% vs +33.6%) demonstrates market inefficiency, with books likely overvaluing his scoring potential based on draft pedigree and physical tools rather than current role reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Sochan's 30% over rate and -1.9 average differential create clear value on the under, particularly when his line sits above 11.5 points. The ideal spot comes against teams that can limit transition opportunities and force San Antonio into halfcourt sets where Sochan's scoring role diminishes. Main risk is a breakout shooting performance, but the data suggests betting his floor over his ceiling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 19.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 20.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Points Prop Lines
Compare Jeremy Sochan props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Points prop record last 10 games?
Sochan has gone 3-7-0 over/under on his points props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's averaging 10.8 points against lines typically set around 12.7, creating a consistent 1.9-point deficit that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Points last 10 games?
Bet under on Sochan's points props. His 30% over rate and -1.9 average differential create clear value, especially with a +33.6% ROI on unders versus -42.7% on overs. The market consistently overprices his scoring potential relative to his current role.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Points last 10 games?
Sochan is averaging 10.8 points over his last 10 games, which sits 1.9 points below his typical line of 12.7. This consistent underperformance relative to market expectations has created profitable opportunities for under bettors throughout this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan under props when his line exceeds 11.5 points, particularly against teams that limit transition scoring and force halfcourt execution. His scoring dips most significantly when San Antonio faces disciplined defenses that can contain pace and ball movement.