Jeremy Sochan's home Points props present a clear under opportunity with just 42.3% overs hitting across 26 games. The Spurs forward averages 10.08 points against an 11.38 line, creating a -1.3 point differential that has generated +10.1% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Sochan's home scoring struggles stem from San Antonio's developmental approach and his evolving role within their system. The 1.3-point gap between his actual production and betting lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited offensive ceiling in home environments. His current five-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern tied to how the Spurs utilize him at the Alamodome. The 42.3% over rate across 26 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -19.2% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently inflated these lines have been. Sochan's role as a defensive specialist and facilitator limits his scoring opportunities, particularly at home where the Spurs often experiment with lineups and prioritize player development over individual statistics. The absence of any meaningful over streaks longer than two games reinforces that his scoring bursts are brief and unsustainable. This trend appears structurally sound rather than due for regression, as it aligns with his skill set and team usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.3-point scoring deficit and consistent 42.3% over rate create a sustainable edge, especially during the current five-game under streak. Target games where Sochan faces strong defensive opponents or when San Antonio emphasizes ball movement over individual scoring. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or increased offensive responsibility if injuries occur.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 19.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 21.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 2.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 12.5 | 18.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 2.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 11.5 | 9.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Points prop record home games?
Sochan has gone 11-15-0 on Points overs in home games, hitting just 42.3% across 26 games this season. His under bets have generated a positive 10.1% ROI while overs have lost -19.2%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Points home games?
Bet under on Sochan's home Points props. He's averaging 1.3 points below his typical line with only 42.3% overs hitting. The five-game under streak and consistent pattern support continued under plays.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Points home games?
Sochan averages 10.08 points in home games against a typical line of 11.38, creating a -1.3 point differential. This gap has persisted across 26 games, indicating lines consistently overvalue his home scoring.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan under props during home games against strong defensive teams or when San Antonio emphasizes ball movement. Avoid when key players are injured and he might see increased offensive usage.