Jeremy Sochan's points props present a clear under opportunity, with overs hitting just 45.6% of the time across 57 games. His 10.79 average sits 0.7 points below the typical 11.45 line, generating positive 3.8% ROI on unders while overs lose 12.9%. The data strongly favors betting under.
Expert Analysis
Jeremy Sochan's scoring profile reveals a player consistently overvalued by oddsmakers, creating systematic value on the under. His 10.79 points per game average falls meaningfully short of the standard 11.45 line, indicating books haven't properly adjusted to his offensive limitations. The 45.6% over rate across 57 games represents a significant sample size that can't be dismissed as variance. Sochan's role as a defensive-minded forward limits his offensive touches, particularly in San Antonio's developing system where Victor Wembanyama commands primary scoring attention. The Spurs' pace and offensive efficiency further constrain Sochan's ceiling, as he rarely benefits from garbage time scoring that inflates some role players' numbers. His recent alternating pattern between over and under performances suggests inconsistent offensive involvement rather than a player finding his rhythm. The -12.9% ROI on overs demonstrates the market's persistent overestimation of his scoring ability, while the positive 3.8% under ROI confirms the edge exists for disciplined bettors. Sochan's defensive versatility makes him valuable to San Antonio, but that same role distribution away from pure scoring creates the pricing inefficiency we're exploiting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54.4% under hit rate and positive ROI create a sustainable edge, though the margin isn't overwhelming enough for high conviction. Sochan's defensive role and secondary offensive status in San Antonio's hierarchy support continued under performance. The primary risk involves potential offensive role expansion or unusually efficient shooting stretches that could temporarily inflate his scoring.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 19.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 20.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 21.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 12.5 | 15.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Points prop record all games?
Jeremy Sochan has gone over his points prop in 26 of 57 games (45.6%) while going under 31 times (54.4%). His under record significantly outpaces the break-even rate needed for profitable betting at standard -110 odds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Points all games?
Bet under on Jeremy Sochan's points props. His 54.4% under rate and positive 3.8% ROI create a clear edge, while overs lose money at -12.9% ROI. The data strongly supports fading his scoring ability.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Points all games?
Jeremy Sochan averages 10.79 points per game, which sits 0.7 points below his typical 11.45 line. This meaningful gap between performance and expectation creates the foundation for profitable under betting over the long term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan points unders consistently rather than situationally. His defensive role and secondary offensive status create persistent value regardless of matchup, though avoid betting during potential garbage time blowouts where he might accumulate cheap points.