Jeremy Sochan's blocks prop presents a clear contrarian opportunity with just 47.7% overs across 44 games. The Spurs forward averages 0.64 blocks against a typical 0.57 line, yet the over carries a brutal -8.9% ROI while unders show minimal loss at -0.2%. This screams systematic undervaluation of his defensive limitations.
Expert Analysis
Sochan's blocks profile reveals a player whose defensive impact doesn't translate to traditional shot-blocking metrics. At 6'9" playing primarily power forward, he lacks the rim protection instincts that generate consistent blocks, instead focusing on perimeter defense and help rotations. The 0.07 average edge over the line appears meaningful but masks significant volatility - his longest over streak of 6 games suggests occasional hot runs, while the 4-game under streak indicates extended cold periods. The concerning -8.9% ROI on overs despite the positive differential points to books setting inflated lines that capitalize on his defensive reputation. Sochan's role in San Antonio's system emphasizes switching and help defense rather than rim protection, limiting his block opportunities compared to traditional big men. The under bet's near break-even ROI of -0.2% suggests this is where the true value lies, as the market consistently overestimates his shot-blocking frequency. His current 1-game under streak following previous volatility indicates the market may still be adjusting to his actual defensive impact versus perceived ability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 52.3% under rate combined with the stark ROI difference (-8.9% over vs -0.2% under) indicates systematic line inflation. Sochan's defensive value comes from versatility and positioning rather than rim protection, making blocks an inconsistent stat for him. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, especially in games where San Antonio faces teams that attack the rim less frequently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Blocks prop record all games?
Jeremy Sochan's blocks prop shows a 21-23-0 over/under record across 44 games, hitting overs just 47.7% of the time. He averages 0.64 blocks per game against a typical 0.57 line, creating a small positive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Blocks all games?
Lean under on Jeremy Sochan's blocks props. The overs carry a devastating -8.9% ROI while unders are nearly break-even at -0.2%, indicating the market consistently overvalues his shot-blocking ability relative to his defensive role.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Blocks all games?
Jeremy Sochan averages 0.64 blocks per game, which is 0.07 blocks higher than his typical 0.57 line. However, this small edge is misleading given the poor over performance and suggests lines are systematically inflated.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jeremy Sochan blocks unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, particularly against teams that avoid rim attacks. His defensive value comes from switching and help defense rather than shot-blocking, making unders the consistent play.