Jerami Grant's points prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.8% overs across 29 games with a -1.0 point differential from his typical line. The Trail Blazers forward consistently underperforms expectations in back-to-back situations, generating positive ROI for under bettors at +5.3%.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling pattern in Jerami Grant's scoring output when playing on one day rest. Across 29 games spanning from October 2023 through March 2025, Grant has averaged 18.38 points against lines typically set around 19.4, creating a consistent one-point gap that sharp bettors can exploit. This underperformance isn't marginal—it's systematic, with overs cashing at just 44.8% while generating negative ROI of -14.4%. The underlying factors driving this trend likely stem from Portland's pace and Grant's role within their offensive system during compressed schedules. Back-to-back scenarios often see reduced minutes for veterans, and Grant's usage may decrease as the Trail Blazers manage his workload. The -5.3% ROI on overs versus +5.3% on unders tells the complete story—the market consistently overvalues Grant's scoring ability in these rest-disadvantaged spots. With longest streaks of 4 overs and 5 unders, the variance exists but the central tendency favors the under. The current streak of 1 over suggests potential regression toward the mean, making this an opportune time to capitalize on the established pattern.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Grant's systematic underperformance on one day rest creates a sustainable edge, with the market failing to properly adjust his lines downward in these compressed schedule spots. Target this play when lines are set at 19+ points, as the historical data suggests he'll fall short more often than not. The primary risk is Portland's inconsistent rotations potentially boosting his usage, but the 29-game sample provides sufficient confidence in the trend's persistence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 20.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 15.5 | 5.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 21.5 | 24.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 23.5 | 15.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 19.5 | 20.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 19.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 19.5 | 37.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 18.5 | 9.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 18.5 | 21.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Jerami Grant's points prop record on one day rest stands at 13-16-0 over/under across 29 games, hitting the over just 44.8% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance against market expectations in compressed schedule situations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Points 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Jerami Grant's points when he's playing on one day rest. The data strongly supports this approach with a +5.3% ROI on unders versus -14.4% on overs, creating a clear mathematical edge for disciplined bettors.
What's Jerami Grant's average Points 1 day rest?
Grant averages 18.38 points on one day rest compared to typical lines around 19.4, creating a consistent -1.0 point differential. This gap represents the market's failure to properly adjust for his reduced output in back-to-back scenarios.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's points unders specifically when Portland plays on one day rest with lines set at 19+ points. Avoid this play during extended rest periods or when he's coming off multiple games under his prop, as variance can work against the trend.