Jaxson Hayes shows a modest 53.8% over rate (7-6-0) in points props this season, but the Lakers center is averaging 6.92 points against a 7.58 line, creating a -0.7 differential. Despite the slight over frequency, the negative average differential suggests lean under value.
Expert Analysis
Jaxson Hayes presents a classic case where surface-level over frequency masks underlying value on the under. While hitting overs at a 53.8% clip across 13 games, Hayes is averaging nearly three-quarters of a point below his typical line of 7.58. This gap indicates oddsmakers may be overvaluing his scoring output relative to his actual production. The Lakers center's role remains inconsistent as a backup big man, creating natural volatility in his minutes and touches. Hayes typically sees increased scoring opportunities when Anthony Davis rests or in blowout scenarios, but his baseline production suggests books are pricing in these spike games too heavily. The +2.8% ROI on overs versus -11.9% on unders reveals where the market inefficiency lies. Hayes' athletic ability creates occasional explosive performances that inflate his line, but his limited offensive skill set and inconsistent role make sustained scoring difficult. The 13-game sample shows no clear splits data, suggesting his production remains relatively stable across different game situations. This consistency in underwhelming output, combined with potentially inflated lines, creates systematic under value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.7 average differential trumps the modest 53.8% over rate, indicating Hayes consistently falls short of inflated lines. Target unders when his line sits at 7.5 or higher, particularly in games where the Lakers are expected to control pace or when Davis is healthy and limiting Hayes' minutes. Main risk is garbage time production in blowouts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-26 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jaxson Hayes's Points prop record all games?
Jaxson Hayes has gone over his points prop in 7 of 13 games (53.8%) while going under 6 times with no pushes. His record shows slight over frequency but masks underlying value issues with his production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jaxson Hayes Points all games?
Lean under on Jaxson Hayes points props. Despite hitting overs 53.8% of the time, he averages 6.92 points against 7.58 lines, creating a -0.7 differential that suggests consistent underperformance relative to market expectations.
What's Jaxson Hayes's average Points all games?
Jaxson Hayes averages 6.92 points per game across the 13-game sample. This sits 0.66 points below his typical line of 7.58, indicating books may be overvaluing his scoring output relative to actual production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hayes points unders when his line is 7.5 or higher, especially with Anthony Davis healthy and limiting Hayes' minutes. Avoid betting during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his scoring opportunities.