Jarrett Allen has delivered exceptional assists value over his last 10 games, hitting the over in 7 of 10 contests (70%) while averaging 2.8 assists against a 2.4 line. The +0.4 differential and 33.6% ROI on overs signals a clear market inefficiency worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
The Cleveland Cavaliers' offensive evolution has transformed Jarrett Allen from a traditional rim-running center into a more versatile playmaker, and the betting market hasn't fully adjusted. Allen's 2.8 assists average over this 10-game stretch represents a significant leap from his career norms, driven by Cleveland's increased pace and ball movement under their current system. The Cavaliers have been running more sets through Allen in the high post, particularly when Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell create driving lanes that collapse defenses toward Allen. His improved court vision and willingness to make the extra pass have coincided with teammates finding better spots for catch-and-shoot opportunities. The 70% over rate isn't just variance—it reflects a genuine skill development and role expansion that books are slow to price in. Allen's assist opportunities spike when Cleveland faces teams that pack the paint, forcing him to distribute rather than score. However, regression risk exists if the Cavaliers revert to more isolation-heavy offense or if Allen's usage shifts back toward traditional center duties. The sample size, while encouraging, remains relatively small for drawing definitive conclusions about permanent role changes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Allen's expanded playmaking role appears sustainable given Cleveland's offensive system changes, and the market consistently undervalues his assist potential. Target games where the Cavaliers face defensive schemes that clog driving lanes, forcing more ball movement through Allen. The primary risk is Cleveland reverting to more traditional center usage or Allen's teammates struggling to convert his passes into assists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jarrett Allen's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Jarrett Allen has hit the assists over in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate) with a 7-3-0 record. He's averaging 2.8 assists against a typical 2.4 line, creating a +0.4 favorable differential for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jarrett Allen Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Jarrett Allen assists props. His 70% over rate and +0.4 average differential above the line indicate the market is undervaluing his expanded playmaking role in Cleveland's current offensive system.
What's Jarrett Allen's average Assists last 10 games?
Jarrett Allen is averaging 2.8 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.4 assists above the typical 2.4 line. This differential has produced a strong 33.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Allen assists overs when Cleveland faces teams that pack the paint defensively, forcing more ball movement. Games with higher projected totals also create more assist opportunities through increased possessions and pace.