James Harden's three-point production at home has been consistently disappointing, hitting the over in just 10 of 25 games (40%) while averaging 2.4 makes against a 2.54 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI, making it the clear value play in Los Angeles.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Harden's diminished three-point aggression at Crypto.com Arena. His 2.4 average sits 0.14 makes below the typical line, which might seem marginal but represents meaningful value over a full season. The 40% over rate indicates books are still pricing Harden based on his historical volume rather than his current role within the Clippers' system. At home, Harden appears more content facilitating for teammates like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, leading to fewer three-point attempts than the market expects. The persistence of this trend across 25 games suggests it's not random variance but a fundamental shift in how Harden operates in familiar surroundings. His longest under streak of five games demonstrates the consistency of this pattern, while even his longest over streak topped out at just four games. The -23.6% ROI on overs is particularly damning, indicating that even when Harden does exceed expectations, the victories aren't frequent enough to overcome the juice. This trend appears sustainable as long as Harden remains in his current role as a secondary scorer and primary facilitator for the Clippers at home.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Harden's consistent underperformance at home creates a profitable betting angle. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as Harden's 2.4 average provides the best cushion. The main risk is a vintage Harden explosion, but his role as facilitator-first makes this increasingly unlikely at Crypto.com Arena.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Harden's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
James Harden has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 10 of 25 home games this season, a disappointing 40% success rate. He's averaging 2.4 makes per game at Crypto.com Arena against a typical line of 2.54.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Harden 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on James Harden's three-pointers made at home. The under has delivered a 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%. His facilitator role limits volume, making the under the clear value play in Los Angeles.
What's James Harden's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
James Harden averages 2.4 three-pointers made in home games, which sits 0.14 makes below the typical 2.54 line. This consistent shortfall has created profitable under opportunities throughout the season for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harden's three-point unders when the line is 2.5 or higher at home games. His role as primary facilitator for Leonard and George consistently limits his volume at Crypto.com Arena, creating the best value on under bets.