Jamal Murray's three-pointers made prop at home presents a perfectly balanced coin flip with a 12-12 over/under record across 24 games. His 2.54 average barely exceeds the typical 2.5 line, but negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Murray's home three-point production reveals a prop that bookmakers have priced to near-perfection. The 50% hit rate combined with his 2.54 average sitting just 0.04 makes above the standard 2.5 line indicates minimal edge in either direction. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) confirms the market has found equilibrium on this specific prop. Murray's role as Denver's secondary scorer behind Nikola Jokic creates consistent usage patterns at home, where the Nuggets often control pace and game flow. However, this consistency works against bettors rather than for them. The current two-game under streak following previous streaks of three overs and four unders demonstrates the random walk nature of this prop. Without meaningful splits data or identifiable patterns in his home shooting, Murray's three-point makes become purely variance-driven. The lack of a clear directional edge, combined with the vig working against bettors on a coin-flip proposition, makes this a textbook example of a prop to avoid. Sharp bettors recognize when the house has properly calibrated a line, and Murray's home three-pointers represent exactly that scenario.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. This prop exemplifies why disciplined bettors avoid coin-flip situations where the house edge dominates. With a perfect 50% split and minimal average differential, neither side offers sustainable value. The negative ROI on both overs and unders confirms the market has efficiently priced Murray's home three-point production, making this a clear avoid regardless of current streaks or short-term patterns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamal Murray's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Murray has gone 12-12 on his three-pointers made over/under in home games, hitting exactly 50% overs across 24 games. His 2.54 average barely exceeds the typical 2.5 line, creating a perfectly balanced proposition.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamal Murray 3-Pointers Made home games?
Neither over nor under offers value on Murray's home three-pointers made prop. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides make this a clear pass situation for disciplined bettors.
What's Jamal Murray's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Murray averages 2.54 three-pointers made in home games, just 0.04 makes above the standard 2.5 line. This minimal differential explains the balanced 12-12 over/under record across his sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Murray's three-pointers made props entirely in home games. The efficient market pricing and lack of directional edge make this a losing proposition regardless of timing or streaks.