Jamal Murray has crushed steals overs at an elite 80% clip over his last 10 games, averaging 1.6 steals against a 0.7 line for a massive +0.9 differential. This 8-2-0 over record with +52.7% ROI represents one of the strongest prop trends available. Strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Murray's steal surge represents a fundamental shift in his defensive engagement during Denver's playoff push. The 1.6 average against a 0.7 line creates nearly a full steal cushion, suggesting books haven't adequately adjusted to his increased activity level. This isn't random variance—Murray has historically elevated his defensive intensity in meaningful stretches, and steals often correlate with increased court awareness and anticipation that comes with playoff preparation. The 80% hit rate over 10 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +0.9 differential indicates he's not just barely clearing the number but doing so convincingly. The longest over streak of 5 games shows sustained excellence rather than boom-bust volatility. However, steals remain somewhat volatile by nature, and regression toward career norms becomes more likely as the sample extends. The recent 1-game under streak might signal books are beginning to adjust, though the line movement appears insufficient given the underlying performance. Murray's defensive metrics and hustle stats during this period would provide additional confirmation of legitimate skill-based improvement versus statistical noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Murray's 80% over rate and +0.9 differential represent exceptional value that books haven't fully corrected. The trend shows legitimate defensive engagement rather than random variance, making it sustainable in the short term. Primary risk is natural regression and potential line adjustments, but current pricing still offers edge. Target games where Denver needs defensive stops or faces uptempo opponents.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamal Murray's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Murray has gone over his steals prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80% hit rate) with only 2 unders. This 8-2-0 record has generated +52.7% ROI for over bettors while under bettors suffered -61.8% losses.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamal Murray Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Murray's steals props. His 80% over rate and 1.6 average against 0.7 lines create substantial value. The trend shows legitimate defensive engagement, though natural regression remains a risk factor.
What's Jamal Murray's average Steals last 10 games?
Murray is averaging 1.6 steals over his last 10 games compared to his typical 0.7 line, creating a massive +0.9 differential. This means he's exceeding expectations by nearly a full steal per game consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray steals overs in competitive games where Denver needs defensive stops or against uptempo opponents who create more steal opportunities. Avoid during blowouts where defensive intensity typically decreases in garbage time.