Jamal Murray's blocks production with extended rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 36.4% overs across 11 games. Despite averaging 0.73 blocks against a 0.5 line, the under delivers +21.5% ROI while overs hemorrhage -30.6%. This is a strong fade spot.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Murray's defensive engagement after extended rest. While his 0.73 average suggests the over should hit consistently, the 4-7-0 record reveals the volatility inherent in blocks props for guards. Murray's defensive positioning as a point guard naturally limits his block opportunities, and the sample shows he's more likely to post zero-block games than multi-block performances after rest. The trend's persistence across nearly a full season suggests this isn't random variance but reflects Murray's role and defensive responsibilities. Extended rest may actually work against him here, as defensive timing and positioning often require rhythm that can be disrupted by layoffs. The five-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how blocks can cluster in streaky patterns for perimeter players. Most concerning for over bettors is that even when Murray exceeds the line, he's typically hitting exactly 1 block rather than posting the 2-3 block games needed to make overs profitable long-term. The -30.6% ROI on overs is particularly damning given the low 0.5 threshold.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 21.5% ROI advantage and 63.6% hit rate make this a profitable fade despite Murray's average exceeding the line. Target games where Denver is favored by 8+ points, as blowout potential reduces Murray's defensive intensity in crucial moments. Main risk is variance in small samples, but the trend's consistency suggests legitimate edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamal Murray's Blocks prop record 2+ days rest?
Murray's blocks prop with 2+ days rest shows a 4-7-0 over/under record (36.4% overs) across 11 games from late December through early April, demonstrating consistent under performance despite the low threshold.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamal Murray Blocks 2+ days rest?
Bet under on Murray's blocks with extended rest. The 63.6% under hit rate and +21.5% ROI provide a clear edge, while overs lose -30.6% despite his 0.73 average exceeding the typical 0.5 line.
What's Jamal Murray's average Blocks 2+ days rest?
Murray averages 0.73 blocks with 2+ days rest, which is 0.23 blocks above the standard 0.5 line. However, this average is misleading as he more frequently posts zero blocks than multi-block games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray blocks unders when Denver has extended rest and is heavily favored. Blowout potential reduces his defensive engagement, and rest may disrupt the timing needed for opportunistic blocks by guards.