Jamal Murray's assists prop on one day rest shows a slight edge toward unders, hitting just 48.1% of the time across 27 games. While his 7.07 average beats the typical 6.69 line by 0.4 assists, the under's superior -1.0% ROI versus -8.1% for overs suggests value lies below the number.
Expert Analysis
Murray's assist production on one day rest reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw numbers and betting value. His 7.07 average suggests he should clear most lines around 6.5-7.0, yet overs cash less than half the time with brutal -8.1% ROI. This pattern indicates books are efficiently pricing in his elevated usage after rest, creating inflated lines that account for his improved playmaking. The 13-14 over/under split demonstrates remarkable balance, but the ROI gap tells the real story. Murray likely benefits from fresher legs and sharper decision-making on one day rest, leading to that +0.4 differential versus his season average. However, the betting market has caught up to this edge, consistently setting lines that capture his enhanced performance while still favoring unders. The current two-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern. Without additional context about opponent pace, game totals, or Nikola Jokic's availability, the fundamental math suggests books are overcompensating for Murray's rest advantage, creating systematic value on the under despite his strong raw performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -1.0% ROI on unders vastly outperforms the -8.1% loss rate on overs, indicating the market consistently overvalues Murray's rest advantage. While his 7.07 average beats typical lines, the 48.1% over rate suggests books have adapted by setting inflated numbers. Target unders when lines reach 7.0 or higher, especially without additional context favoring increased pace or usage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 12.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Jamal Murray props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamal Murray's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Murray's assists prop on one day rest shows a 13-14-0 over/under record (48.1% overs) across 27 games from October 2023 to April 2024, with unders holding a slight 52% edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamal Murray Assists 1 day rest?
Lean under on Murray's assists with one day rest. The under's -1.0% ROI significantly outperforms the over's -8.1% loss rate, indicating the market overvalues his rest advantage despite strong raw numbers.
What's Jamal Murray's average Assists 1 day rest?
Murray averages 7.07 assists on one day rest, beating his typical line by 0.4 assists. However, this +0.4 differential hasn't translated to profitable overs, suggesting books price in his enhanced performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray assists unders when lines reach 7.0+ on one day rest. The market consistently overprices his rest advantage, creating the best value below inflated numbers despite his strong underlying performance.