Jamal Murray's home assists props present a dead-even 12-12 record with minimal edge. His 7.04 average beats the typical 6.62 line by just 0.4 assists, but negative ROI on both sides suggests market efficiency. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Murray's home assists data reveals a perfectly balanced market with little exploitable value. The 50% over rate combined with negative ROI on both sides indicates the sportsbooks have priced this prop accurately, leaving no consistent edge for bettors. The modest 0.4 assist differential above the line appears meaningful but hasn't translated to profitable outcomes due to juice and close games. Murray's assist production at home lacks the volatility patterns that create betting opportunities - he's neither consistently exceeding expectations nor falling short by significant margins. The absence of split data and recent form trends further limits our ability to identify specific game conditions where Murray's assist output might deviate from market expectations. Without clear situational advantages like pace-up spots, blowout potential, or rest advantages, this prop essentially becomes a coin flip with negative expected value. The current one-game under streak holds no predictive value given the overall balance. Home court advantage appears minimal for Murray's playmaking, as the comfortable environment hasn't produced the consistency needed for profitable betting angles.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Murray's home assists prop is a textbook example of market efficiency eliminating betting value. The perfectly balanced 12-12 record combined with negative ROI on both sides means you're fighting juice without any statistical edge. Even the 0.4 assist advantage over the line hasn't generated profits, indicating the market has properly adjusted. Skip this prop entirely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 12.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamal Murray's Assists prop record home games?
Murray has gone 12-12 on assists overs in home games, hitting exactly 50% with a 7.04 average. This dead-even split across 24 games shows remarkable consistency without directional bias.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamal Murray Assists home games?
Neither over nor under offers value on Murray's home assists props. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides make this a clear pass situation until better spots emerge.
What's Jamal Murray's average Assists home games?
Murray averages 7.04 assists in home games compared to the typical 6.62 line, creating a +0.4 differential. However, this modest edge hasn't translated to profitable betting outcomes due to market efficiency.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Murray's assists props at home entirely. The lack of situational advantages and negative expected value on both sides make this prop unprofitable regardless of timing or conditions.