Jalen Williams has struggled to hit his three-point props with extended rest, posting just a 40.0% over rate (4-6-0) across 10 games with 2+ days off. Despite averaging 1.4 made threes versus a typical 1.3 line, the under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have burned at -23.6%.
Expert Analysis
The counterintuitive nature of this trend reveals the complexity of rest's impact on shooting performance. While Williams averages slightly more threes with extended rest (1.4 vs his season norm), this marginal improvement hasn't translated to consistent prop success. The 60% under rate suggests that either the market overadjusts for rest benefits or Williams experiences rhythm disruption after time off. His recent five-game under streak before the current mini-run indicates a player who may overthink his shot selection when fresh, particularly early in games when he's feeling out his touch. The Thunder's pace and game script with rest could also factor in—Oklahoma City might lean more heavily on their stars early, potentially limiting Williams's natural three-point opportunities that come from secondary actions and transition. The -23.6% ROI on overs is particularly damning, suggesting consistent line inflation. Without significant splits data to identify specific conditions where Williams thrives with rest, the trend appears to be systematic rather than situational, making it a reliable fade opportunity rather than a variance-driven anomaly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a clear edge despite the small sample size. Williams appears to struggle finding his three-point rhythm after extended rest, making this a solid contrarian play. Target this when the line sits at 1.5, as the 1.4 average provides comfortable cushion. Main risk is small sample variance and potential game script changes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Williams's 3-Pointers Made prop record 2+ days rest?
Williams is 4-6-0 over/under on his three-point props with 2+ days rest, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This represents a clear under trend with the under going 6-4-0 across 10 games from November 2023 through December 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Williams 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Bet the under on Williams's three-point props with extended rest. The 60% under rate and positive 14.6% ROI on under bets creates a clear edge, especially when the line sits at 1.5 with his 1.4 average providing cushion.
What's Jalen Williams's average 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Williams averages 1.4 three-pointers made with 2+ days rest, which is 0.1 above the typical 1.3 line. However, this slight edge hasn't translated to prop success, as he still goes under 60% of the time despite the favorable average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams three-point unders specifically when he has 2+ days rest and the line is set at 1.5. Avoid betting his threes props on normal rest, as this trend appears unique to extended time off situations.