Jalen Williams three-pointers made props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, going 17-29 (37.0% overs) with a devastating -29.4% ROI on overs. Williams averages just 1.28 threes against typical lines of 1.41, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture for Jalen Williams three-point production following one day of rest. His 37.0% over rate across 46 games represents a significant deviation from random chance, suggesting systematic factors are suppressing his long-range output in these spots. Williams averages 1.28 three-pointers made compared to his typical line of 1.41, a meaningful 0.13 differential that compounds over time. The Thunder's pace and offensive structure likely shift with limited rest, potentially reducing Williams's three-point opportunities or forcing him into different roles. His current five-game under streak reinforces this pattern, though regression remains possible given the sample size. The -29.4% ROI on overs versus +20.4% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge for contrarian bettors. Williams's versatility as a guard-forward hybrid may work against his three-point volume when Oklahoma City prioritizes ball movement and interior scoring on tired legs. The consistency of this underperformance across nearly two full seasons suggests structural rather than random factors, making this a sustainable betting angle rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 37.0% over rate and -0.13 average differential create legitimate value on Williams three-point unders following one day rest. Target this spot when his line sits at 1.5 or higher, as the data strongly suggests he'll fall short more often than not. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or blowout scenarios increasing his three-point attempts late in games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Williams's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Williams goes 17-29 on three-pointers made props with one day rest, hitting the over just 37.0% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance compared to typical 50% expectations for most player props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Williams 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Williams three-pointers made with one day rest. The 37.0% over rate and +20.4% ROI on unders create clear mathematical value, especially when his line is set at 1.5 or higher.
What's Jalen Williams's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Williams averages 1.28 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to typical lines of 1.41. This -0.13 differential consistently favors under bets and represents meaningful value over large sample sizes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams three-point unders specifically on one day rest when his line is 1.5 or higher. Avoid this spot in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his attempts and three-point makes.