Jalen Williams shows a perfectly neutral assists profile on one day of rest, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time across 46 games. While averaging 4.43 assists against a 4.07 line creates a +0.4 edge, the -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests market efficiency. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency for Jalen Williams assists props on one day of rest. His 23-23 over-under split across 46 games represents statistical perfection from a probability standpoint, yet the negative ROI on both sides tells a more complex story. The +0.36 average differential above the line suggests Williams consistently exceeds expectations in this rest scenario, likely due to increased energy and sharper decision-making after a single day off. However, the market appears to have adjusted accordingly, setting lines that capture this value. Williams's role as Oklahoma City's secondary playmaker becomes more pronounced with adequate rest, as he can better facilitate for teammates like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. The current two-game under streak aligns with his historical patterns, showing streaks of four games in both directions. This volatility, combined with the neutral long-term results, suggests that individual game factors like opponent pace, Thunder's offensive flow, and Williams's usage rate matter more than the rest advantage itself. The lack of meaningful edge despite favorable averages indicates the market has efficiently priced in his rest-day performance.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Despite Jalen Williams averaging 4.43 assists against a 4.07 line on one day rest, the perfectly neutral 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market. The +0.36 differential looks appealing but translates to no profitable edge. Focus betting capital on props where Williams shows clearer directional bias rather than this coin-flip scenario.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Williams's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Jalen Williams has gone over his assists prop exactly 23 times and under 23 times on one day rest, creating a perfect 50.0% over rate across 46 games dating back to October 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Williams Assists 1 day rest?
Pass on Jalen Williams assists props with one day rest. The perfectly neutral 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market with no edge.
What's Jalen Williams's average Assists 1 day rest?
Williams averages 4.43 assists on one day rest compared to his typical 4.07 line, creating a +0.36 favorable differential that unfortunately doesn't translate to profitable betting opportunities given market efficiency.
How reliable is this trend?
Focus on Jalen Williams assists props in back-to-back situations or against specific pace matchups rather than rest-based spots, where the market has clearly adjusted to his performance patterns.