Jalen Suggs steals props have been brutally one-sided over his last 10 games, hitting under in 80% of contests with just a 20% over rate. His 1.0 average sits a full half-steal below the typical 1.5 line, creating consistent value on the under with +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Jalen Suggs struggling to generate steals at his previous rate. Averaging exactly 1.0 steals over this 10-game stretch represents a significant decline from what oddsmakers expect, as evidenced by the persistent 1.5 line he's failed to clear in 8 of 10 games. This isn't just variance - it's a sustained pattern that suggests either a role change, injury impact, or tactical adjustment by opponents. The Magic's defensive scheme may have shifted Suggs away from gambling for steals, prioritizing team defense over individual stats. His longest under streak reached six games, indicating this isn't random fluctuation but a genuine trend. The -61.8% ROI on overs shows how consistently the market has overvalued his steal production during this period. While steals can be volatile, the sample size and consistency of the underperformance suggests structural reasons rather than temporary slump. The complete absence of split data limits deeper analysis, but the raw production tells the story clearly enough.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Suggs has demonstrated consistent inability to reach 1.5 steals, hitting just 20% of overs with a damaging -0.5 differential from the line. The +52.7% under ROI reflects genuine market inefficiency. Main risk is steals' inherent volatility - one active defensive possession can flip the outcome. Target games where pace projects slower or against teams that protect the ball well.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Suggs's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Suggs has gone 2-8-0 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaged exactly 1.0 steals per game while consistently facing 1.5 lines, creating an exploitable gap.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Suggs Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Suggs steals props. His 20% over rate and -0.5 differential from the line show clear value, backed by +52.7% under ROI. The consistency of underperformance suggests sustainable edge.
What's Jalen Suggs's average Steals last 10 games?
Suggs is averaging 1.0 steals over his last 10 games, sitting 0.5 below the typical 1.5 line. This half-steal gap has proven decisive, with unders cashing in 80% of his recent contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Suggs steals unders in slower-paced games or against ball-security teams. His current role appears less conducive to steal production, making the under consistently profitable regardless of opponent strength.