Jalen Brunson's three-pointer props present a marginal under edge with his 48.7% over rate falling short of the 52.4% breakeven threshold. Despite averaging 2.73 makes against a 2.45 line, the -7.0% over ROI signals consistent market mispricing. The data leans toward under betting.
Expert Analysis
The Brunson three-pointer market reveals a classic case of recency bias inflating expectations. While his 2.73 average appears strong against the typical 2.45 line, the 48.7% over rate exposes the underlying volatility in his shot selection. Brunson's three-point attempts fluctuate dramatically based on game flow and the Knicks' offensive rhythm, making the over a consistently poor value proposition despite the appealing average. The -7.0% over ROI across 78 games represents substantial sample size validation that oddsmakers are pricing his ceiling rather than his median performance. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of inconsistent volume that makes overs challenging to hit. The key factor driving this trend is Brunson's role as a primary ball-handler who often attacks the rim rather than settling for perimeter shots, especially in close games where the Knicks need reliable scoring. This creates a ceiling effect where his three-point attempts rarely spike enough to consistently clear the inflated lines. The persistence of this under trend suggests fundamental shot distribution patterns rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 48.7% over rate combined with negative over ROI creates a sustainable edge for under betting. Brunson's drive-first mentality and inconsistent three-point volume make the typically inflated lines beatable. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as his shot selection becomes increasingly selective in pressure situations where the Knicks need efficient scoring.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Brunson's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Brunson has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 38 of 78 games this season, posting a 48.7% over rate. This falls short of the breakeven threshold, with unders showing a -2.1% ROI compared to overs at -7.0%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Brunson 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Brunson's three-pointers made props. His 48.7% over rate and negative over ROI create a consistent edge for under betting, particularly when lines are set at 2.5 or higher.
What's Jalen Brunson's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Brunson averages 2.73 three-pointers made per game against typical lines around 2.45. While this +0.28 differential looks favorable, his inconsistent volume makes the over a poor value despite the appealing average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brunson three-pointer unders when the line hits 2.5 or higher, especially in competitive games where his drive-first mentality takes over. Avoid betting when the line drops to 2.0 or below.