Jalen Brunson's assists overs at Madison Square Garden present a compelling 66.7% hit rate across 39 games, with his 7.36 average crushing the typical 6.63 line by 0.7 assists. The +27.3% ROI on overs signals a sustainable edge driven by home court facilitation.
Expert Analysis
Jalen Brunson transforms into a more willing distributor when playing at Madison Square Garden, and the numbers reveal why this trend has staying power. His 7.36 assists average at home represents a meaningful 11% bump over the standard 6.63 line, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his facilitation in familiar surroundings. The 66.7% over rate across 39 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the impressive +27.3% ROI indicates this isn't just variance—it's a systematic edge. Home court advantages in assists often stem from better chemistry with teammates, more aggressive offensive schemes, and crowd energy that elevates playmaking instincts. Brunson's role as the Knicks' primary initiator becomes more pronounced at MSG, where he's comfortable pushing pace and finding teammates in rhythm. The consistency matters here: even with a recent under, his longest under streak maxed at just two games, while overs have run as long as five consecutive. This suggests the trend has resilience against short-term regression. The key risk lies in potential line adjustments as books catch up to this pattern, but for now, the market appears slow to adapt to Brunson's enhanced home facilitation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Brunson's 7.36 home assists average creates consistent value against the 6.63 line, backed by a 66.7% hit rate that shows remarkable persistence. The ideal spot comes when the line stays at or below 6.5, maximizing the 0.86 average differential. Main risk is books eventually adjusting to this clear pattern, but current market inefficiency remains exploitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 7.5 | 12.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Brunson's Assists prop record home games?
Jalen Brunson's assists prop record in home games stands at 26-13-0 over/under, hitting the over at a robust 66.7% rate across 39 games. This translates to a profitable +27.3% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Brunson Assists home games?
Bet the OVER on Jalen Brunson's assists in home games. His 7.36 average consistently beats the typical 6.63 line, with a 66.7% hit rate providing strong evidence of sustainable edge at Madison Square Garden.
What's Jalen Brunson's average Assists home games?
Jalen Brunson averages 7.36 assists in home games, which runs 0.73 assists above the standard 6.63 line. This 11% differential creates consistent value for over bettors across his 39-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brunson assists overs when the line stays at 6.5 or below, maximizing the gap against his 7.36 home average. Avoid after extended over runs of 4+ games, though his pattern shows strong resilience to regression.