Jaime Jaquez Jr. has hit the over on his rebounds prop just 40% of the time over his last 10 games, posting a 4-6 record that's generated a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors. With the under delivering a solid +14.6% return and Jaquez averaging only 0.2 rebounds above his typical line, the data points toward continued under value.
Expert Analysis
Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s rebounding struggles over this 10-game sample reveal a player whose role and positioning aren't consistently generating glass opportunities. The 40% over rate combined with a devastating -23.6% ROI for over bettors suggests the market has been slow to adjust to his current rebounding reality. His 4.5 average represents just a marginal 0.2 edge over the typical 4.3 line, indicating books have been relatively accurate in their assessments. The recent 2-game over streak might tempt some bettors, but it follows a more telling 4-game under streak that better represents his current trajectory. As a guard in Miami's system, Jaquez often finds himself on the perimeter or in transition rather than battling for boards in the paint. The Heat's team rebounding philosophy and his specific role within their rotation appear to be limiting his glass opportunities. Without significant changes to his usage or Miami's approach, this under trend has the structural foundation to continue. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates there's been real value in fading his rebounding props, and that edge likely persists until his role evolves or the market overcorrects.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jaquez's 40% over rate and brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors reflects a player whose current role simply isn't generating consistent rebounding opportunities. The under's +14.6% return demonstrates sustainable value that should continue until his usage patterns change significantly. Target this when his line sits at 4.5 or higher, as his 4.5 average suggests even modest regression could easily produce under results. Main risk is Miami adjusting his positioning or a specific game script that keeps him closer to the basket.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 12.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has gone 4-6 on his rebounds props over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This poor over rate has resulted in a -23.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have profited at +14.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jaime Jaquez Jr. Rebounds last 10 games?
Bet the under on Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s rebounds props. The 40% over rate and +14.6% ROI for under bettors shows clear value fading his rebounding. His guard role limits consistent glass opportunities, making unders the profitable long-term play.
What's Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s average Rebounds last 10 games?
Jaime Jaquez Jr. is averaging 4.5 rebounds over his last 10 games compared to his typical 4.3 line. This minimal 0.2 differential above the line suggests books have been relatively accurate in their assessments of his rebounding output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jaime Jaquez Jr. rebounds unders when his line is set at 4.5 or higher, as his current average suggests even slight regression produces under results. Avoid when Miami faces pace-up spots or when he's projected for extended minutes.