Jabari Smith Jr.'s three-pointers made prop shows a strong over bias with a 57.6% hit rate (38-28-0) across 66 games. His 1.85 average significantly exceeds the typical 1.53 line, creating a +0.3 differential that translates to nearly 10% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
Jabari Smith Jr. has established himself as a reliable three-point threat whose actual production consistently outpaces oddsmaker expectations. The 1.85 average against a 1.53 line represents a meaningful 20.9% edge that suggests books are slow to adjust to his increased volume and efficiency. This isn't a small sample fluke—66 games provides robust evidence of a sustainable pattern. The +9.9% ROI on overs demonstrates real betting value, while the brutal -19.0% under ROI warns against fading this trend. Smith Jr.'s role as a stretch forward in Houston's system creates consistent three-point opportunities, particularly as the Rockets have embraced modern spacing concepts. The lack of significant cold streaks (longest under streak just 4 games) indicates steady production rather than boom-bust volatility. His current 1-game under streak feels more like natural variance than a concerning shift, especially given his 7-game over streak earlier this season. The key concern is potential line adjustment as books recognize this edge, but until that correction occurs, Smith Jr.'s three-point props offer legitimate value on the over side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.6% over rate and +0.3 differential create a mathematical edge that outweighs the typical juice. Smith Jr.'s consistent role and three-point volume in Houston's system support continued production above market expectations. The main risk is sportsbooks eventually correcting the line upward, but current pricing still offers value for disciplined over betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jabari Smith Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Jabari Smith Jr. has gone over his three-pointers made prop 38 times while staying under 28 times across 66 games, creating a 57.6% over rate with no pushes recorded.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jabari Smith Jr. 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the over on Jabari Smith Jr.'s three-pointers made props. His 1.85 average significantly exceeds typical lines around 1.53, creating consistent value with a 57.6% hit rate and positive ROI.
What's Jabari Smith Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Jabari Smith Jr. averages 1.85 three-pointers made per game across all situations. This exceeds the typical 1.53 line by 0.32 makes, representing a 20.9% edge over market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jabari Smith Jr.'s three-point overs consistently given his role stability. The 66-game sample shows reliable production above market lines, making this a steady value play rather than situational.