Immanuel Quickley's steals prop shows a modest 53.1% over rate across 32 games, with his 0.91 average sitting 0.22 above the typical 0.69 line. The positive differential suggests consistent value, though the +1.4% ROI indicates slim margins requiring selective targeting.
Expert Analysis
Quickley's steal production reflects his aggressive perimeter defense and active hands in passing lanes, traits that translated well from his New York days to Toronto's system. The 0.91 average against a 0.69 line creates a meaningful 32% cushion, suggesting oddsmakers may be undervaluing his defensive activity level. His 53.1% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the consistency matters more than raw percentage when the line appears soft. The guard's playing time stability as Toronto's primary ball-handler ensures consistent opportunities to generate steals through on-ball pressure and help defense rotations. However, the modest +1.4% ROI over 32 games indicates this edge operates on thin margins. Quickley's steal production tends to correlate with pace and opponent turnover rates, making matchup selection crucial. The recent one-game under streak breaks a pattern where his longest over streak reached six games, showing the volatility inherent in defensive stats. Without significant sample size concerns at 32 games, the trend appears legitimate but requires careful game selection to maximize the slight mathematical advantage the numbers suggest exists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.22 average differential above the line provides a legitimate mathematical edge, though the modest ROI demands selective targeting. Best opportunities arise against turnover-prone opponents in faster-paced games where Quickley's aggressive defensive style generates more steal chances. Main risk is the inherent volatility of defensive statistics and Toronto's occasional blowout situations reducing his minutes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Immanuel Quickley's Steals prop record all games?
Quickley's steals prop shows a 17-15-0 over/under record (53.1% overs) across 32 games from December 2023 through January 2025, indicating a slight tendency toward exceeding his lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Immanuel Quickley Steals all games?
Lean over on Quickley's steals props, but be selective. His 0.91 average beats the typical 0.69 line by 0.22, creating mathematical value that requires targeting favorable matchups against turnover-prone opponents.
What's Immanuel Quickley's average Steals all games?
Quickley averages 0.91 steals per game across 32 contests, sitting 0.22 above the typical 0.69 line. This 32% differential suggests oddsmakers may be undervaluing his consistent defensive activity level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Quickley's steals overs against turnover-prone opponents in faster-paced games where his aggressive defensive style thrives. Avoid back-to-back situations or potential blowouts that could limit his minutes and steal opportunities.