Immanuel Quickley's home assists prop presents a perfectly balanced 8-8-0 record with 50% overs, but the +0.6 differential above typical lines suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers. Despite neutral ROI, Quickley's 6.69 home average indicates a slight lean toward overs when lines are set conservatively.
Expert Analysis
Quickley's home assists performance reveals an intriguing market inefficiency despite the surface-level balanced record. The 6.69 average against a 6.12 typical line represents meaningful value that sharp bettors should recognize. This differential suggests sportsbooks consistently underestimate Quickley's playmaking at Scotiabank Arena, where he benefits from familiar court dimensions and crowd energy that elevates his court vision. The 50% over rate masks the true story—when Quickley goes over, he likely exceeds by meaningful margins, while his unders might cluster just below the number. His recent transition to a primary ball-handling role with Toronto has stabilized his assist floor, making him less volatile than typical backup guards. The current one-game under streak following a five-game over run demonstrates the natural variance in assist props, but the underlying metrics favor continued production. Home court advantage in assists often stems from improved rhythm and timing with teammates, factors that become more pronounced for players in expanded roles. Quickley's ability to consistently exceed modest expectations at home represents a sustainable edge, particularly when books set conservative lines based on his overall season averages rather than his elevated home performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.6 differential between Quickley's 6.69 home average and typical 6.12 lines represents genuine value that outweighs the neutral 50% over rate. Target this prop when lines are set at 6.0 or below, as Quickley's expanded role and home court familiarity consistently produce assist totals that exceed conservative market expectations. Main risk lies in Toronto's pace-dependent offense potentially slowing against defensive-minded opponents.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-18 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Immanuel Quickley props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Immanuel Quickley's Assists prop record home games?
Quickley's assists prop at home shows an 8-8-0 record with exactly 50% overs across 16 games. While perfectly balanced on the surface, his 6.69 average significantly exceeds the typical 6.12 line, indicating consistent undervaluation by sportsbooks in home settings.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Immanuel Quickley Assists home games?
Lean toward betting over on Quickley's home assists props. The +0.6 differential between his actual performance and typical lines represents genuine value, particularly when books set conservative numbers at 6.0 or below based on season-long averages rather than home-specific production.
What's Immanuel Quickley's average Assists home games?
Quickley averages 6.69 assists in home games, which runs 0.6 assists above the typical line of 6.12. This meaningful differential suggests oddsmakers consistently underestimate his playmaking ability at Scotiabank Arena, creating potential value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Quickley's assists overs when lines are set at 6.0 or below, especially after under streaks when books might overreact. His home court advantage and expanded role create the most value against pace-friendly opponents who encourage higher assist totals.