Herbert Jones shows a clear under bias on one day rest, hitting the over just 36.7% of the time across 30 games. His 1.17 average sits below the typical 1.23 line, generating strong under returns at +20.9% ROI. This presents a consistent fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's three-point struggles on minimal rest reveal a player whose shooting mechanics deteriorate when his legs aren't fresh. The 36.7% over rate across 30 games isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance that reflects how fatigue affects his shot selection and accuracy. Jones averages 1.17 makes against a 1.23 line, creating a meaningful 0.06 gap that compounds over time. The -30.0% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating his bounce-back ability, while under bettors have profited handsomely at +20.9%. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Jones's role as a defensive specialist who doesn't force shots when they're not falling. On tired legs, he's more likely to defer to teammates rather than chase his three-point quota. The recent streak of two overs might tempt contrarian thinking, but it's worth noting his longest under streak reached four games, suggesting the market still hasn't fully adjusted to his rest-dependent shooting patterns. This isn't a player who elevates his game through sheer will when fatigued—he's a smart role player who knows his limitations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jones's 36.7% over rate and +20.9% under ROI on one day rest creates a sustainable edge, particularly when the line sits at his typical 1.23 or higher. Target spots where he's coming off heavy defensive minutes or playing against pace-up opponents who might limit his catch-and-shoot opportunities. The main risk is variance in a relatively small sample, but his role and shooting profile support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Herbert Jones has gone 11-19-0 over/under on his three-pointers made prop with one day rest, hitting the over just 36.7% of the time across 30 games. This represents a clear under trend with strong historical data supporting fade opportunities.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet under on Herbert Jones's three-pointers made with one day rest. His 36.7% over rate and +20.9% under ROI create a sustainable edge, especially when the line is set at 1.23 or higher against his 1.17 average.
What's Herbert Jones's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Herbert Jones averages 1.17 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to his typical line of 1.23. This 0.06 differential consistently favors under bettors and reflects how minimal rest impacts his shooting efficiency and shot selection.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones three-point unders when he has one day rest and the line is 1.23 or higher. Look for spots after heavy defensive minutes or against pace-up teams that limit his catch-and-shoot opportunities for maximum edge.